Stock Markets February 5, 2026

Amazon Forecasts Roughly $200 Billion in 2026 Capital Spending, Signals Continued AI Buildout

Company projects a steep rise in capex as AI infrastructure and retail investments expand; shares fell after operating income guidance missed estimates

By Leila Farooq AMZN MSFT
Amazon Forecasts Roughly $200 Billion in 2026 Capital Spending, Signals Continued AI Buildout
AMZN MSFT

Amazon said it expects to spend about $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a substantial increase versus prior estimates, underscoring continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure, cloud capacity and retail logistics. The company also gave first-quarter operating income guidance that missed analyst estimates, prompting a nearly 8% drop in after-hours trading.

Key Points

  • Amazon expects approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, up from an estimate of $144.67 billion.
  • First-quarter operating income guidance of $16.5 billion to $21.5 billion missed the $22.04 billion estimate, and shares dropped nearly 8% in extended trading.
  • Heavy capex across hyperscalers is driven by AI infrastructure needs - processors, data centers and networking equipment - while Amazon simultaneously invests in retail expansion and delivery capabilities.

Amazon on Thursday told investors it plans to invest roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures across the company in 2026. That guidance represents a marked increase from an earlier estimate of $144.67 billion compiled by LSEG, and joins a broader tech-industry trend of outsized spending on AI-related infrastructure.

The announcement came with forward-looking profit guidance that disappointed the market. Amazon set a range for first-quarter operating income of $16.5 billion to $21.5 billion, below a consensus estimate of $22.04 billion. Following the release, the companys shares fell nearly 8% in extended trading.

Industrywide, major technology companies are plowing large sums into processors, data centers and networking equipment as they race to expand AI capacity. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabets Google and Meta are expected to account for more than $500 billion in combined spending this year, according to the same context provided with Amazons figures.

Investors have reacted unevenly to those large capex plans elsewhere in the sector. Googles forecast for $175 billion to $185 billion in capital spending was accepted by markets as the company paired the projection with strong growth in its cloud business. Meta also won investor approval for a plan to spend $115 billion to $135 billion. By contrast, Microsoft experienced downward pressure on its stock after its cloud revenue growth only marginally exceeded estimates.

For Amazon, the cloud business remains central to the companys financial profile. Amazon Web Services - while a smaller share of total revenue, contributing approximately 15% to 20% of sales - produces more than 60% of the company's operating profit. Enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and traditional digital migration workloads has been robust, Amazon said, even as capacity constraints across the industry have limited the firm's ability to fully satisfy that demand.

To address those constraints, Amazon increased investments in the fourth quarter. One notable initiative, an internal AI infrastructure project named Rainier, brought nearly half a million of the company's Trainium2 chips online. The firm said these in-house chips are being deployed primarily to support Anthropic, the maker of the Claude chatbot.

Alongside cloud and AI investments, Amazon continues to allocate capital to its retail operations. The company is expanding its reach into rural U.S. markets, enhancing same-day and next-day delivery capabilities, and intensifying efforts around perishable foods. Strategic moves in retail include widening the Whole Foods footprint and opening a 225,000-square-foot mega-store designed to compete with large-format retailers.


Bottom line: Amazons projection of about $200 billion in 2026 capital spending underscores an industry-wide commitment to AI infrastructure and continued investment in logistics and retail expansion. The company's operating income guidance for the first quarter fell short of estimates, triggering a significant after-hours share decline.

Risks

  • High levels of AI-related capital spending must be matched by operational or financial returns - investors have signaled they may penalize firms if spending does not translate into growth.
  • Industrywide capacity constraints are limiting the ability to meet strong enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services, potentially slowing revenue realization.
  • Amazons near-term operating income guidance falling below estimates highlights short-term earnings risk tied to elevated investment levels.

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