The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that airfares increased 7.1% year-over-year in February, according to data compiled and noted by Jefferies. That represents a notable acceleration from January, when airfares rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Overall, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching both consensus expectations and January's reading. On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.3%, also in line with market forecasts.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, airfares climbed 1.4% from January. The February year-over-year increase of 7.1% follows a 3.4% decline in December, and reflects an easier comparison with the same month in 2025 when airfares fell 0.8% year-over-year. Jefferies notes that airfares are likely to face continued easier year-over-year comparisons through June because air travel demand was disrupted by geopolitical and tariff concerns in spring 2025.
Industry signals this week from ISTAT Americas indicate that air travel demand has remained resilient despite the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising fuel costs. Those dynamics are highlighted alongside the CPI figures.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.5% year-over-year in February, up 0.2 percentage points from January. Within the Core CPI series, airfares contributed meaningfully to the monthly move, increasing 1.4 percentage points in February relative to January on a seasonally adjusted basis.
When adjusted for overall CPI inflation, the real airfares index stood at 0.60 in February, a 4.5% increase year-over-year. Despite nominal increases in recent periods, the real index remains 17% below the 2019 average. Examining available time series data back to 1989, the trailing 12-month real airfares reading is down 24% relative to 1989 levels. The data also show real airfares have fallen at a compound annual rate of 5% since 2014.
The February figures highlight how base effects and shifts in travel demand can produce sizable month-to-month swings in CPI components, particularly in categories tied to discretionary spending such as air travel.