Citrini Research's recent report, The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, presents a stark scenario where rapid AI uptake produces a split economy: stronger firm-level outputs alongside deteriorating personal incomes. The report, which drew more than 16 million views on X on Monday, illustrates how automation could lift productivity and margins even as it eliminates sizable numbers of well-paid white-collar jobs.
At the heart of the study is a paradoxical mechanism - widespread automation enhances the amount produced per unit of input while simultaneously reducing the need for human labor. That contraction in labor demand allows companies to lower wage bills and retain or increase output levels, producing an economic configuration in which corporate profitability and aggregate productivity rise while household earning power falls.
The report describes a feedback loop in which firms redeploy savings from lower labor expenses into AI infrastructure. Those investments in compute then enable additional automation, which in turn creates more room to cut labor costs and expand margins. Citrini frames this sequence as self-reinforcing: layoffs boost margins, margins finance more compute, and compute drives further automation. Over time, the report projects an expanding share of output being produced primarily by machines rather than people.
Such dynamics, Citrini suggests, shift competition away from talent and toward access to processing power. In the report's words, "the owners of compute saw their wealth explode as labor costs vanished." That emphasis on compute as a critical production input points to winners among hardware and infrastructure suppliers - companies that provide the processing capability underlying large-scale automation.
The report singles out the strategic implications for major compute suppliers. In contrast to conventional downturns that typically curb technology spending, an automation-driven competitive race may require ongoing investment in compute simply to stay competitive. That environment could support sustained demand for providers of advanced processors and related infrastructure, even as broader consumption weakens.
For market participants focused on valuation questions, the report's scenario also underscores why some investors look to tools that quantify fair value under differing assumptions. One such tool references a Fair Value calculator that uses a mix of 17 industry valuation models to evaluate stocks including NVDA and thousands of others.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Technology and compute infrastructure firms could see demand remain elevated as companies prioritize processing capacity.
- Consumer-facing sectors may feel pressure if household incomes decline and consumption contracts.
- Labor markets, especially among high-income white-collar occupations, could undergo significant disruption.