Stock Markets February 10, 2026

AGL Energy Tightens Full-Year Profit Guidance as First-Half Earnings Slip

Stronger consumer margins and lower costs lift forecast midpoint despite a 6.4% drop in underlying profit for the first half

By Derek Hwang AGL
AGL Energy Tightens Full-Year Profit Guidance as First-Half Earnings Slip
AGL

AGL Energy narrowed its full-year underlying net profit after tax guidance, citing improved consumer margins and lower operating costs, while reporting a 6.4% decline in first-half underlying profit to A$353 million. The revised forecast midpoint sits above analyst consensus, and the company is targeting A$50 million of sustainable net operating cost reductions in FY27.

Key Points

  • AGL narrowed its full-year underlying net profit after tax forecast to A$580 million - A$680 million, down from a wider A$500 million - A$700 million band.
  • First-half underlying profit declined 6.4% to A$353 million from A$377 million a year earlier, though it beat the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of A$307.4 million.
  • The company cited stronger consumer margins and lower-than-expected operating costs and depreciation as drivers of the improved midpoint of the revised guidance, and is targeting A$50 million of sustainable net operating cost reductions in FY27.

Australian power producer AGL Energy has revised and tightened its full-year earnings guidance after reporting lower first-half underlying profit.

The company now expects underlying net profit after tax for the full year to lie between A$580 million and A$680 million, replacing its earlier range of A$500 million to A$700 million. AGL said the adjusted guidance reflects stronger consumer margins recorded in the first half and operating costs and depreciation that were lower than it had expected.

AGL reported first-half underlying profit of A$353 million, down from A$377 million in the prior corresponding period - a decline of 6.4% year-on-year. The half-year result, however, exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of A$307.4 million. The mid-point of AGL's new full-year range also comfortably exceeds the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of A$589.5 million.

In outlining its cost profile, AGL said it is targeting A$50 million of sustainable net operating cost reductions in fiscal 2027. The company attributed the improved near-term outlook to the combination of higher consumer margins and lower-than-expected operating costs and depreciation in the first half.

AGL was also described in the company's release as the country's top corporate carbon emitter. The company provided a currency conversion note in its financial disclosure - $1 = 1.4138 Australian dollars.


Context and implications

The narrowed guidance reduces the width of AGL's expected earnings outcome for the year while shifting the center point upward versus the earlier range. The first-half drop in underlying profit highlights near-term pressure on headline earnings even as the company points to margin and cost improvements that underpin the revised outlook.

Financial detail

  • Full-year underlying net profit after tax guidance: A$580 million - A$680 million (previously A$500 million - A$700 million)
  • First-half underlying profit: A$353 million (previous year: A$377 million)
  • Visible Alpha consensus comparisons: First-half consensus A$307.4 million; full-year midpoint consensus A$589.5 million
  • Reported target: A$50 million of sustainable net operating cost reductions in FY27
  • Currency note: $1 = 1.4138 Australian dollars

Risks

  • Execution risk on achieving the A$50 million of sustainable net operating cost reductions in FY27 - impacts the company's cost base and profitability outlook.
  • First-half underlying profit decline of 6.4% highlights earnings volatility - relevant to investors in the energy and utilities sectors and equity markets tracking company earnings.
  • Potential reputational or regulatory focus tied to being identified as a top corporate carbon emitter in the country - this could affect stakeholder engagement and policy scrutiny for the company and the broader energy sector.

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