Stock Markets February 16, 2026

ADP payrolls, New York factory gauge and Fed speeches set to shape Tuesday’s market focus

Traders prepare for private payrolls data, regional manufacturing readings and Federal Reserve commentary on Feb. 17, 2026

By Hana Yamamoto
ADP payrolls, New York factory gauge and Fed speeches set to shape Tuesday’s market focus

A compact slate of economic releases and central bank commentary will dominate market attention on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. Key data include ADP’s private payrolls tally, the New York Empire State manufacturing index and two scheduled Federal Reserve speeches. Additional releases - including housing sentiment, a composite employment trends gauge and short-term Treasury auctions - round out the day’s items that could influence trading across labor-sensitive, financial and housing-related sectors.

Key Points

  • ADP weekly private payrolls at 8:15 AM ET seen as an early signal of private employment trends, important for labor-sensitive sectors.
  • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM ET indicates regional manufacturing conditions; readings above zero denote expansion and are relevant to industrials.
  • Fed officials Barr (12:45 PM ET) and Daly (2:30 PM ET) will deliver speeches that may influence views on regulation and the future path of monetary policy, impacting financial markets.

Market participants enter Tuesday, February 17, 2026, with a focused set of economic readings and central bank remarks that could steer market sentiment through the day. Traders and analysts will be watching private-sector employment figures, a regional manufacturing survey from New York and remarks from Federal Reserve officials for signals on labor market conditions, business activity and the likely path of monetary policy.

Major Economic Events to Watch

No 3-star events scheduled for this day

Other important releases and events (all times ET)

  • 8:15 AM - ADP Employment Change Weekly (Previous: 6.50K): This weekly report on private payrolls serves as an early indicator of private-sector employment dynamics and is often consulted ahead of the official BLS nonfarm payrolls numbers.
  • 8:30 AM - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Forecast: 8.50; Previous: 7.70): The survey gauges business conditions among manufacturers in New York state; readings above zero denote expansion.
  • 12:45 PM - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Market participants will assess his comments for guidance on priorities in financial regulation and supervision.
  • 2:30 PM - FOMC Member Daly speaks: Remarks from the San Francisco Fed President will be parsed for any indications about future monetary policy direction.

Additional scheduled items

  • 10:00 AM - NAHB Housing Market Index (Forecast: 38; Previous: 37): This index captures homebuilder sentiment on current and future single-family home sales.
  • 10:00 AM - CB Employment Trends Index (Previous: 104.27): A composite indicator that aggregates several labor-market signals to suggest directional trends in employment.
  • 11:30 AM - 3-Month Bill Auction (Previous: 3.600%): A regular Treasury auction that provides insight into investor demand for short-term government paper.
  • 11:30 AM - 6-Month Bill Auction (Previous: 3.500%): This concurrent auction sheds light on market appetite for medium-term Treasury bills.

Collectively, these releases offer a compact but consequential docket for traders to assess labor market momentum, regional manufacturing conditions, housing sentiment and short-term funding preferences. The Fed officials’ speeches are likely to draw particular attention since they could provide color on supervisory priorities and monetary policy considerations that market participants weigh when setting asset prices.

For market participants seeking the latest timing and updates, the full economic calendar lists these items and their scheduled release times.


Key points

  • ADP weekly private payrolls report at 8:15 AM ET will be treated as an early read on private employment and a precursor to official payrolls data - relevant to labor-sensitive sectors.
  • The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM ET offers a snapshot of regional manufacturing conditions, with readings above zero signaling expansion - pertinent to industrial and manufacturing-linked markets.
  • Speeches by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr (12:45 PM ET) and FOMC member Daly (2:30 PM ET) will be closely examined for clues about regulatory focus and monetary policy direction, affecting financial markets and interest-rate expectations.

Risks and uncertainties

  • Unexpected ADP payrolls results could alter expectations for the official employment figures and influence market positioning in risk-sensitive sectors.
  • Remarks from Fed officials may introduce volatility if they shift perceived policy direction or supervisory priorities, with potential impact on bank stocks and fixed-income markets.
  • Demand at the 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions could diverge from recent levels, affecting short-term yield dynamics and money-market conditions.

These events form a concise docket that market participants will monitor for information to update positions and forecasts throughout the trading day.

Risks

  • Surprising ADP payrolls results could prompt rapid market re-pricing, affecting equities and sectors tied to employment trends.
  • Fed speeches may introduce uncertainty about monetary policy or supervisory priorities, potentially increasing volatility in bank shares and bond markets.
  • Lower-than-expected demand at the 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auctions could shift short-term yields and affect money-market conditions.

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