The U.S. administration is moving to employ a Department of Defense-developed artificial intelligence tool to generate reference prices for critical minerals, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the plan who spoke on condition of anonymity. The prices would be used as part of a broader effort to establish a metals trading zone among the United States and partner countries.
Vice President JD Vance earlier this month proposed that the United States and more than 50 partner nations adopt "reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production" backed by "adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity." Those reference prices are expected to be produced by the Pentagon's Open Price Exploration for National Security, known as OPEN, the sources said.
OPEN was launched in 2023 by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency - DARPA - with a stated objective of computing what a metal's price should be when production costs such as labor and processing are included, and when alleged market-distorting practices attributed to China are removed from price calculations. The move to apply OPEN to set benchmark prices sheds light on how the administration intends to influence market pricing for a set of minerals deemed critical to national security and advanced manufacturing.
Program focus and initial scope
Trump administration officials are initially concentrating OPEN's AI pricing model on at least four critical minerals: germanium, gallium, antimony and tungsten, the sources said. The plan calls for using data and other technical assistance from S&P Global and Finnish data firm Rovjok to feed the AI models and help develop pricing outputs.
Sources said the program has been designed to address metals that are thinly traded or sometimes not traded on public markets. The AI model's intent is to provide a transparent pricing reference that can encourage supply agreements between Western miners and manufacturers by reducing the price uncertainty that often discourages commercial deals for niche minerals.
Rationale and market context
China is currently the world's largest miner or processor of many of the minerals the U.S. government classifies as critical. The sources cited Beijing's ability to produce minerals at a loss and depress market prices as a factor that has pressured Western producers and led to mine closures. Chinese officials have consistently maintained that their mineral export practices comply with World Trade Organization rules, the sources noted.
Proponents of an AI-derived reference price argue that manufacturers who rely on germanium, gallium, antimony and similar inputs struggle to determine whether observed Chinese prices reflect normal supply-and-demand dynamics or are influenced by other policies. A benchmark that adjusts for such distortions could, in theory, make long-term supply contracts more appealing to both mine developers and buyers by creating a clearer pricing floor.
Operational and governance questions
Several important details about how the reference prices would operate remain unresolved. It is unclear whether the AI-generated prices would be fixed or allowed to fluctuate over time, whether they would be negotiated between the U.S. and individual allies or applied uniformly across a trading bloc, and what the exact timeline for implementation would be.
The OPEN program is slated to transfer to the non-profit Critical Minerals Forum - CMF - next year. According to a CMF statement, the group's work has emphasized collaborating with "government-funded partners to conduct stress-testing with AI models," and on "identifying and supporting commercially viable mining and processing projects, rather than on government policy." The transfer raises governance questions about whether a non-profit will lead a pricing architecture intended to support a trade block backed by adjustable tariffs.
Potential market effects and industry response
An AI-derived reference price for a mineral such as antimony, backed by a trading bloc and tariff measures, could raise the potential returns for companies developing domestic or allied mining projects by providing a clearer expectation of revenue. For example, a higher reference price would benefit miners advancing U.S.-based antimony projects. Conversely, higher reference prices could increase costs for downstream users, including automakers that incorporate antimony in adhesives and other components.
Industry voices quoted by the sources expressed cautious support for measures that could offset what they describe as Chinese dumping, provided the approach allows miners to operate profitably. "I have a good steer on what the price is to produce tungsten in the U.S.," Oliver Friesen, chief executive of Guardian Metal Resources, said. "I would want to make sure any reference price is above that." Guardian Metal Resources is developing two Nevada tungsten mines.
Legal, political and commercial constraints
The administration's plan signals a shift away from direct guarantees of price floors for individual companies, a policy tool that has been constrained by the absence of dedicated congressional funding. Eric Robinson, special counsel at the Baker Botts law firm and a former managing director of the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital, described the administration's approach as an attempt to respond to industry demand signals "by creating an architecture of reliable investment," while noting the absence of a single instrument many in industry had hoped for.
Questions also remain about the scope of any tariff that would back reference prices. It is not clear whether tariffs would apply to all products containing a given critical mineral or be narrowly targeted. For instance, the United States has limited domestic cathode manufacturing capacity and therefore relatively little immediate need for lithium as a raw commodity, yet lithium-ion batteries are widely used in imported laptops and other electronics. Manufacturers typically favor the cheapest available inputs, which could limit the effectiveness of trade barriers in guaranteeing higher prices to producers, as Nathaniel Horadam, a former Department of Energy staffer who oversaw critical minerals lending programs, explained: "You can try to set something approximating a price floor, but ultimately the trade barriers aren’t going to guarantee someone on the other side of that tariff wall an actual price floor because multiple producers are still going to compete on price."
Allied cooperation and adoption hurdles
For the reference price mechanism to succeed, the administration would need the participation of dozens of allies to ensure the trade block's market influence. The timeline and likelihood of securing such broad agreement remain uncertain. Canada's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources said it was "working to comprehensively understand and analyze" the minerals trade block proposal, indicating that allied governments are still assessing the concept rather than committing to membership.
Implementation will therefore depend on diplomatic and commercial buy-in as much as technical readiness. Even with a working AI model and data partnerships, a trade block lacking sufficient coverage could fail to shape global pricing or prevent continued price competition from producers outside the block.
Transparency and private market initiatives
The OPEN program's work unfolds alongside private sector efforts to improve price transparency for scarce minerals. The sources noted industry-level moves to develop market instruments that provide reference points and hedging opportunities. U.S. miners generally support a reference price-and-tariff framework if it helps them achieve profitable operations rather than merely shifting costs to consumers.
Uncertainties about AI capabilities
Although the administration is rapidly deploying AI tools across multiple domains, including military applications, the use of AI to fundamentally change how critical minerals are priced has drawn skepticism from some quarters. Observers have questioned whether AI models can fully account for the nuances of thinly traded metals markets, including opaque transactions and rapidly changing demand patterns. The sources conveyed that the Pentagon-led model aims to factor in production costs and alleged market manipulation, but whether that approach will meaningfully reconfigure established trading practices is not yet known.
Administrative and symbolic changes
In related political developments, the Trump administration has directed the Department of Defense to be renamed the Department of War, a change that would require congressional action to implement. The renaming was mentioned in the context of broader defense and national security policy shifts accompanying the administration's approach to critical minerals and other strategic resources.
Next steps and open questions
The administration must persuade a coalition of allied states to participate in a minerals trading bloc substantial enough to influence global pricing. It also needs to finalize operational details for OPEN's pricing outputs, determine how tariffs would be constructed and applied, and demonstrate that the AI-derived benchmarks are robust enough to underpin commercial supply agreements. Until those steps are taken, many aspects of the plan - from enforcement to market impact - will remain tentative.