Overview
Wolfe Research issued a note on Wednesday laying out three distinct timelines for the conflict in Iran, reflecting significant uncertainty about how events will proceed through November. The firm framed the exercise as a way to capture a range of possible outcomes rather than to assert a definitive forecast.
Analyst framing
Analyst Tobin Marcus wrote that "it’s very hard to get conviction at this point about how the war in Iran will go," and the team therefore sketched best, worst and base-case scenarios extending to November. The scenarios are intended to map plausible market and economic effects tied to different conflict trajectories.
Base case - the most likely outcome
Wolfe’s base case sits closer to the optimistic scenario. Marcus describes it as a conflict that "will stretch through April but not beyond," concluding with an informal ceasefire that nevertheless leaves "various loose ends unresolved." The firm identifies a likely turning point when former President Donald Trump determines that "the upside from continuing the war is no longer worth its cost, declaring victory, and starting to withdraw."
Under this path, Wolfe expects de-escalation to bring a gradual normalization in energy markets, with crude prices easing "in line with futures." The note points to tentative signs that could support a near-term resolution, including Iran selectively permitting friendly vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz and a "very limited resumption of traffic."
Worst case - prolonged ground operations
The report treats a worst-case trajectory as less likely but possible. This scenario envisions open-ended ground operations, accompanied by additional U.S. military deployments. Marcus warns that in this outcome oil prices could remain "well over $100/bbl," the economy could slow, and markets could move into a bear phase.
Best case - rapid U.S. military success
Wolfe’s most optimistic scenario is summarized with the phrase "America tames a paper tiger." In that view, Iran "wasn't able to 'hold out for long against the most powerful military in human history, bombing at will with uncontested control of the skies.'" Even so, the firm expects oil markets would take time to normalize; it projects that WTI would be back under $80/bbl by May and under $70/bbl by July in this scenario.
Market implications across scenarios
Even in the base case where a ceasefire arrives by April, Wolfe expects energy prices to remain "somewhat elevated" and equities to "chop sideways" after any initial bounce until broader drivers - such as AI investment - reassert themselves. The analysis therefore implies continued sensitivity in energy, equity and macroeconomic indicators across outcomes.
Signals and uncertainties
The note highlights early indicators that could point toward de-escalation, notably Irans limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to friendly traffic. At the same time, the firm emphasizes the low conviction around any single path and the possibility that events could move toward the less likely but more damaging scenario of prolonged ground conflict.
This assessment is presented as a scenario exercise rather than a precise forecast, intended to help investors and market participants consider how different conflict trajectories might affect oil prices, economic growth and equity markets through November.