President Donald Trump’s remark that the war with Iran is "pretty much" complete prompted a sharp market reaction, but analysts at BCA Research say investors should not mistake that declaration for a definitive end to the crisis.
In a note circulated to clients, BCA Research’s chief geopolitical strategist Matt Gertken cautioned that a U.S. declaration of victory does not necessarily equate to the cessation of attacks. "Now that President Trump seems to be declaring victory and offering to resume negotiations, Iran is likely to issue a parting shot to demonstrate its prowess at home and abroad," Gertken wrote.
Gertken added that Iran "has an interest in prolonging negative economic and political ramifications," and that Tehran is unlikely to accept a ceasefire without first ensuring the United States bears a higher cost. The strategist stressed that the signal investors should seek is not the U.S. president's pronouncement but Iran's own decision to stop attacks and return to the negotiating table.
BCA Research highlighted how markets earlier in the week reacted to the prospect of supply disruption, "recognizing the danger of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz." That episode underpinned the firm’s view that risk remains elevated for energy markets even as headlines suggest a de-escalation.
While some indications point to the U.S. seeking an off-ramp to the confrontation, Gertken argues Iran is likely to escalate temporarily, using limited attacks to preserve domestic credibility and international leverage. On balance, BCA Research assigns a 70 percent probability to a lingering oil disruption and places only a 30 percent chance on a rapid diplomatic solution.
The firm also warns that even if talks resume quickly, Iran may continue to "harass the region periodically" ahead of the U.S. midterm election to maintain bargaining power. Given that outlook, BCA’s recommendation for investors is defensive positioning: reduce, but do not completely exit, oil exposure and stay overweight cash until Iran - rather than the U.S. - signals a genuine and sustained ceasefire.
Bottom line: A presidential declaration of victory has eased market strain, but BCA Research advises that true clarity for investors will come only when Iran stops attacking and returns to negotiations. Until then, the risk of intermittent oil supply shocks and renewed regional incidents remains material.