Politics March 3, 2026

Texas Primary Watch: Six U.S. House Contests That Could Reshape November’s Map

Redrawn districts and high-profile endorsements set up pivotal primaries across Texas as candidates vie for November general election advantage

By Jordan Park
Texas Primary Watch: Six U.S. House Contests That Could Reshape November’s Map

Texas voters will decide Democratic and Republican nominees on the first night of the midterm primary season in districts transformed by aggressive redistricting. Several incumbents have shifted plans or face intensified challenges after boundary changes, allegations, and high-profile endorsements. Outcomes in these six contests will influence which party is best positioned to contend for control of the U.S. House in November.

Key Points

  • Redistricting in Texas has substantially altered multiple congressional districts, prompting incumbents to change plans and intensifying primary contests - this affects political control dynamics heading into November.
  • High-profile endorsements from figures such as President Trump and Governor Abbott are shaping Republican primaries in key districts; energy and firearms-related candidates feature prominently in some contests.
  • Legal developments and allegations - including a reported solicitation claim against Representative Tony Gonzales and a presidential pardon for Representative Henry Cuellar - are influencing candidate prospects and primary narratives.

Voters across Texas head to the polls on Tuesday to select nominees for the November midterm elections in a series of U.S. House races altered substantially by recent redistricting. The redesign of multiple districts has changed the partisan calculus, prompting incumbents to run in new districts and sharpening primary battles that carry implications for control of Congress.


Houston-area 9th District - Green seeks a different path

The 9th congressional district around Houston has been redrawn in a way that now strongly favors Republicans. As a result, Democratic Representative Al Green, the district's incumbent, has opted to pursue a different district rather than seek reelection in the altered 9th.

On the Republican side, state Representative Briscoe Cain and Alex Mealer are the leading contenders for the nomination. Cain has secured the endorsement of Governor Greg Abbott. Mealer, a former oil and gas finance executive and small business owner, has received backing from President Donald Trump.


23rd District - Gonzales faces damaging allegations

In the 23rd congressional district, which stretches from western San Antonio to El Paso along the Mexican border, three-term Republican Representative Tony Gonzales is confronting serious allegations reported in local media. The reports allege Gonzales solicited explicit photos from an aide who later died by suicide. Gonzales has denied the charges.

Gonzales’ primary challenger is Brandon Herrera, a firearms manufacturer known as "the AK guy." Herrera is considered more conservative than Gonzales, who drew criticism from some Republicans after voting to certify President Joe Biden's 2020 election victory and for supporting a 2022 gun control bill that was enacted into law. Given the district’s partisan leaning, the winner of the Republican primary is widely expected to be the favorite in the November general election.


28th District - Cuellar’s tougher reelection path

Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar, who has served in the House for 21 years, is facing a more difficult reelection landscape in the San Antonio-area 28th district after redistricting made the seat more competitive for Republicans. Long regarded as among the most conservative Democrats in Congress, Cuellar has contended with legal troubles in prior cycles that complicated his campaigns.

Those legal issues eased in December when President Trump pardoned Cuellar of charges including bribery. If Cuellar advances from Tuesday’s Democratic primary, he is expected to face Republican Tano Tijerina, a Webb County judge and former Major League Baseball player. Tijerina has secured endorsements from both Trump and Governor Abbott.


32nd District - Republicans position for a Dallas pickup

Texas’ 32nd congressional district, which encompasses parts of Dallas, has been redrawn in ways that now tilt it toward Republicans. Incumbent Democratic Representative Julie Johnson decided to run in an adjacent district instead of seeking reelection in the changed 32nd.

The Republican primary field includes Jace Yarbrough, a constitutional lawyer who has drawn endorsements from Trump, conservative donors, and prominent House Republicans. Other Republican entrants include Ryan Binkley, who ran for president in 2024 without success; Paul Bondar, a 2024 congressional candidate in Oklahoma; and Darrell Day, the 2024 nominee for this seat who describes himself as the "MAGA candidate."


34th District - Vicente Gonzalez’s competitive landscape

The 34th district has been reshaped to include the Corpus Christi area, increasing its competitiveness for Republicans and presenting a tougher November contest for Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez if he prevails in Tuesday’s primary. First elected in 2017, Gonzalez has shifted to the right on some immigration matters and voted in favor of a bill banning transgender athletes from competing in girls’ sports, reflecting changes in his district’s partisan balance.

Gonzalez is facing a primary challenge from Etienne Rosas, a researcher and academic who identifies as a democratic socialist. On the Republican side, seven candidates seek the nomination. The two leading contenders both share the surname Flores. Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor in Texas, has won endorsements from Trump and Abbott and other Republican figures. Mayra Flores, who previously served a term in the U.S. House and subsequently lost to Gonzalez twice in general elections, no longer carries Trump’s endorsement but is relying on her name recognition among voters.


35th District - Austin-San Antonio link redrawn

Redistricting has also altered the complexion of the 35th congressional district, which previously connected the liberal-leaning cities of Austin and San Antonio. The changes have made the district more competitive for Republicans and prompted incumbent Democratic Representative Greg Casar to enter the race in another district rather than defend the 35th.

Eleven candidates are contending for the Republican nomination in the 35th, with four considered most competitive: state Representative John Lujan, who has Abbott’s endorsement; Joshua Cortez, a former marketing professional; Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and kickboxing gym owner; and Jay Furman, a Navy veteran who lost to Cuellar in 2024.

The Democratic primary includes Johnny Garcia, a former sheriff’s deputy; Maureen Galindo, a tenants organizer; John Lira, a repeat congressional candidate; and Whitney Masterson-Moyes, who owns a sporting clays range.


These six contests underscore how redistricting, candidate shifts, endorsements, and allegations have reshaped the earliest phase of the midterm primary season in Texas. Outcomes on Tuesday will clarify which contenders move forward to November and how competitive several formerly safe seats have become.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over primary outcomes in newly drawn districts could affect party control projections for the U.S. House, creating volatility in policy expectations that may influence investor sentiment.
  • Allegations against an incumbent, as reported in the 23rd district, introduce reputational and electoral risk that could alter the expected partisan outcome and the timing of campaign resources in the region.
  • Redrawing of district boundaries increases electoral competitiveness in several areas, raising the possibility of closer general election contests that may extend campaign spending and local market attention.

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