The 2026 House elections hinge on a narrow Republican majority and Democratic hopes of winning control. Control of the chamber would give Democrats the authority to launch investigations into the administration of President Donald Trump. Over the coming months, party primaries will determine the general election lineups in many competitive districts. Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas held early primary contests on March 3; other notable nomination battles and special races are set for March 10, March 17, May 19 and May 26.
What to watch
Below are summaries of ten House races across multiple states that either produced notable primary results on March 3 or will be decided in upcoming party contests. Each race carries particular political dynamics - from scandals to intraparty challenges to crowded fields in safe seats - that could affect party strategy and the balance of power in the House.
TEXAS 23RD DISTRICT - A SCANDAL-CLOUDED INCUMBENT VS. A RIGHT-WING INFLUENCER
In the sprawling border district that runs from San Antonio to El Paso, Republican Representative Tony Gonzales and conservative gun-rights activist Brandon Herrera advanced to a runoff on May 26 after neither cleared 50% of the primary vote. Local reporting published text messages suggesting Gonzales had an affair with a staffer who died by suicide last year. Gonzales is the subject of an ethics investigation in Congress and several colleagues have publicly called on him to resign; he has denied wrongdoing. Herrera - a gun company owner who goes by "the AK Guy" - nearly unseated Gonzales in the 2024 primary, losing by roughly 350 votes. Herrera has faced criticism for jokes on his YouTube channel about veteran suicide and the Holocaust. Political analysts describe the district as solidly Republican, but say it could become competitive in the general election depending on how the runoff and fallout from the allegations play out.
TEXAS 2ND DISTRICT - A VETERAN INCUMBENT FALLS TO A CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGER
Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw, a combat veteran who lost an eye in Afghanistan, lost the Republican primary to Steve Toth. Crenshaw had been targeted by right-wing media for his support of Ukraine and for his vote to certify President Trump’s 2020 election defeat; he was also the only Republican House incumbent in Texas not to receive Trump’s endorsement. Toth, an ordained pastor and a legislator known as one of the most conservative members of the Texas Legislature, defeated Crenshaw in the primary — a result observers say could warn other Republicans who sometimes break with Trump.
TEXAS 21ST DISTRICT - A FORMER ATHLETE EMERGES AS THE GOP NOMINEE
Mark Teixeira, a former Major League Baseball player, won the Republican nomination in a crowded field to fill an open seat in the Hill Country between Austin and San Antonio. Teixeira defeated 11 other candidates and is a World Series champion with the New York Yankees. Though he has never held elected office, Teixeira is backed by endorsements from former President Trump, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and several senior House Republicans.
TEXAS 15TH DISTRICT - A TEJANO MUSIC STAR WINS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Democrats nominated Tejano singer Bobby Pulido in the 15th District primary, setting up a challenge to incumbent Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz. Pulido won over Ada Cuellar, an emergency-room doctor who argued during the primary that Pulido did not sufficiently support abortion rights. Pulido has said he is personally opposed to abortion but believes it should be legal.
TEXAS 18TH DISTRICT - A LONG-SERVING DEMOCRAT FACES A PRIMARY BATTLE
Representative Al Green, who has served in Congress since 2005 and is known for his public protests against former President Trump, including being escorted out of the chamber at a recent State of the Union for holding a sign reading "Black people aren’t apes" in response to a racist video the White House had posted, faces an uncertain political future. After a Republican-led redistricting, Green and fellow Democratic Representative Christian Menefee were drawn into the same downtown Houston district. Polling shows Menefee, 37, with a wide lead. Because neither candidate received over 50% of the vote, the contest will proceed to a May 26 runoff. The race has unfolded amid pressure from Democratic voters on some senior leaders to step aside following former President Joe Biden’s ill-fated 2024 reelection bid.
NORTH CAROLINA 1ST DISTRICT - REPUBLICANS TARGET A SWING SEAT
Republican legislators in North Carolina redrew district lines last year with the stated goal of making it easier to unseat Democratic Representative Don Davis, the incumbent in the state's only competitive House district. On March 3, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout - who lost to Davis by less than 2 percentage points in 2024 - won the Republican primary, setting up a potentially competitive general election rematch.
NORTH CAROLINA 4TH DISTRICT - A NARROW PRIMARY AND A LIKELY RECOUNT
In the Research Triangle area, incumbent Democratic Representative Valerie Foushee led Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam 49.2% to 48.2% in the primary count, with a recount likely. Allam, the first Muslim elected official in North Carolina, has drawn backing from progressive groups that are also pressuring some Democrats they view as insufficiently combative with former President Trump. Foushee had previously defeated Allam by nine percentage points in 2022.
GEORGIA 14TH DISTRICT - FILLING A VACANCY AND DIVISIONS IN A GOP BASE (MARCH 10)
The special election to replace former Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has exposed fractures in elements of President Trump’s base. Fifteen candidates are running in this deeply conservative northern Georgia district. Trump’s endorsement of former district attorney Clay Fuller did not clear the field. Fuller has pledged to move beyond Greene’s combative approach and focus on economic development, while other contenders - including former state Senator Colton Moore - have cast themselves as more stalwart supporters of the president.
ILLINOIS 9TH DISTRICT - A CROWDED DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (MARCH 17)
Sixteen Democrats are vying to fill an open seat that covers the northern reaches of Chicago and adjacent suburbs. Leading contenders include Kat Abughazaleh, a progressive Palestinian-American social media influencer who faces criminal charges related to an immigration protest last October; Evanston Mayor Dan Biss, who has the endorsement of retiring Representative Jan Schakowsky; and state Senator Laura Fine.
KENTUCKY 4TH DISTRICT - PRESIDENTIAL INTERVENTION AGAINST A GOP DISSIDENT (MAY 19)
President Trump has sought to unseat one of his most vocal Republican critics in the House, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Massie voted against the administration’s signature tax and spending bill last year and led the effort to release millions of government files tied to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump encouraged retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein to run and publicly endorsed him before Gallrein formally entered the race. Massie, an MIT-trained libertarian who has represented the northern Kentucky district since 2012, has previously won his primaries by lopsided margins.
Outlook
As primary calendars progress, these contests will provide early measures of party cohesion, the influence of endorsements from national figures, and the appetite among voters for candidates who deviate from or align closely with President Trump. The results in these and other races will inform strategies for both parties as they aim either to defend or flip the narrow House majority ahead of the November general election.