Politics February 24, 2026

State of the Union Offers Trump a Prime Moment to Rally Voters Behind Iran Strategy

With advisers urging a domestic focus, the president faces pressure to make the case for potential strikes as U.S. forces concentrate in the Middle East

By Leila Farooq
State of the Union Offers Trump a Prime Moment to Rally Voters Behind Iran Strategy

President Donald Trump will use Tuesday night’s State of the Union address to present his case to a national audience that includes skeptical lawmakers and voters about threatened military action against Iran over its nuclear program. Advisers have recommended focusing on domestic issues such as the economy and immigration, but the lead-up to the speech has been dominated by a large U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and preparations for what officials say could become a protracted conflict if Iran and the U.S. fail to reach a deal.

Key Points

  • The State of the Union provides President Trump a national platform to make the case for threatened strikes against Iran; this could shape public opinion and congressional reception - sectors affected: defense, energy.
  • White House advisers urged the president to emphasize domestic issues such as the economy and immigration, but the unfolding military deployment to the Middle East has dominated attention - sectors affected: equities sensitive to geopolitical risk, defense contractors.
  • U.S. officials warn a conflict could last for weeks if Iran does not agree to resolve the nuclear dispute; comments from administration negotiators suggest Iran may be close to producing higher-grade material - sectors affected: oil markets, insurance, shipping.

WASHINGTON, Feb 24 - Tuesday’s State of the Union address gives President Donald Trump a widely viewed platform to press Americans and members of Congress to accept his threatened military response to Iran’s nuclear activities. The speech is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (0200 GMT on Wednesday) from the U.S. House of Representatives podium, and White House advisers have counseled the president to concentrate on domestic themes such as the economy and immigration.

Despite that guidance, the run-up to the nationally televised address has been overshadowed by an intensive deployment of U.S. forces to the Middle East and public preparations for potential military action against Iran. Officials have warned that, absent a negotiated resolution to a long-running dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program, any conflict could persist for weeks.

On Monday, Trump downplayed reports that some figures inside his administration harbor doubts about moving toward war with Iran. In a social media post he wrote: "I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people." The post reiterated his willingness to pursue a diplomatic outcome while emphasising that failure to secure a deal could produce severe consequences for Iran.

Trump’s rise to the highest office in U.S. politics was buoyed by a fervent political base that supports his "America First" approach and his pledge to end so-called "forever wars," such as the lengthy conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. His political messaging - including the "Make America Great Again" slogan - helped Republicans seize control of both chambers of Congress in the past, though opinion polling cited by advisers suggests the party may face difficulties maintaining legislative majorities.

The administration has pointed to recent successes framed as wins for Trump’s foreign policy, but analysts and officials note Iran presents a distinctly different strategic challenge. With a population of roughly 93 million people and substantial missile inventories, Iran is described by U.S. officials as a more formidable adversary than other recent targets of American pressure.

Trump previously asserted in July that U.S. strikes the prior month had "obliterated" Iran’s nuclear facilities, claiming, "It would take years to bring them back into service." As U.S. naval vessels and other military assets gathered in the region, Trump’s special envoy for nuclear negotiations, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was "probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."

The president’s audience for the address includes Democrats in Congress who have criticised his decision to abandon a 2015 agreement that curtailed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Many of those Democrats have faulted Trump for discarding that diplomatic framework and then escalating toward possible military action while simultaneously seeking a new deal.

In a formal statement, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia criticised the administration’s trajectory, saying: "Trump is bumbling his way toward war with Iran in a feeble attempt to accomplish what had already been done by a diplomatic deal that was effectively curbing Iran’s nuclear program - until Trump tore it up, over the objections of his then-Secretaries of Defense and State." The comment encapsulates a key line of Democratic argument ahead of the address.


Context and stakes

  • The State of the Union is a major communications event that can reshape public debate; advisers argue it should highlight domestic priorities, but national security developments are shaping the message.
  • The military buildup in the Middle East and official statements about Iran’s nuclear timeline have increased focus on the potential for conflict and on the administration’s foreign policy choices.
  • Lawmakers from both parties and the broader public will be watching the president’s presentation to assess whether diplomatic avenues remain viable and how the administration plans to justify or avoid military escalation.

Risks

  • Escalation into a prolonged military conflict in the Middle East, which would raise geopolitical risk premiums and disrupt energy markets - impacts: oil producers and energy-dependent industries.
  • Political backlash at home from Democrats and some voters who oppose abandoning the 2015 nuclear agreement and favor diplomatic solutions, creating legislative and electoral uncertainty - impacts: broader market sentiment and policy continuity.
  • Uncertainty about Iran’s nuclear timeline as described by U.S. negotiators, which could force rapid shifts in U.S. military posture and investor risk appetite - impacts: defense sector and commodities.

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