Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat contest has been dominated by a single issue heading into the primary - immigration enforcement. The three frontrunners in the Democratic contest have each promised substantial changes to, or the outright elimination of, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), mirroring a broader surge of concern within the party after the killing of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis earlier this year.
The prominence of immigration in the Illinois race follows similar developments elsewhere. In New Jersey, Analilia Mejia won a special congressional Democratic primary on a pledge to abolish ICE, an agency that has carried out high-visibility, heavily armed operations in U.S. cities to meet the Trump administration’s deportation priorities. Such hard-line stances against the president’s immigration policies have succeeded as a campaign theme in some Democratic primaries, even as party strategists weigh the potential general election consequences.
Illinois, long a dependable Democratic state where Republicans have not captured statewide office since 2014, may present a different electoral calculus than for more competitive states. Still, the leading contenders to succeed retiring Senator Dick Durbin, 81, have embraced sweeping changes to immigration enforcement. Durbin himself has been a prominent advocate for immigrant rights in the Senate, and has long supported legislation providing a path to citizenship for immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children.
Each of the three front-runners has staked out strong positions on ICE. U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi has called for abolishing what he calls "Trump’s ICE." Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton has publicly supported eliminating the agency, and Representative Robin Kelly has urged that the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, be "dismantled," and has said its outgoing secretary, Kristi Noem, should be impeached.
Political science observers note that when candidates’ policy differences are relatively minor, emphasis shifts to how they present opposition candidates to voters. "Given that the policy differences are relatively minor, the differentiation is the edge in which you’re bringing the opposition," said Ruth Bloch Rubin, an associate professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face one of six Republicans in the general election, a contest that political analysts broadly rate as solidly Democratic. Krishnamoorthi, a moderate member of Congress first elected in 2016, led Lieutenant Governor Stratton by 22 points in a January Emerson College poll. Federal Election Commission filings show a steep fundraising gap by the end of February, with Krishnamoorthi having raised more than $30 million compared with Stratton’s roughly $4 million and Kelly’s $3.3 million.
That financial picture shifted somewhat after Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker directed $5 million from his family PAC to Stratton’s campaign, funding advertisements that included vocal criticisms of President Trump and featured endorsements from figures such as Senator Tammy Duckworth. Subsequent polling has shown Stratton gaining ground in the contest.
Why immigration has become central in Illinois
Immigration has been a prominent political concern in Illinois for years, shaped by Senator Durbin’s longstanding advocacy and Chicago’s sizable immigrant population. The issue intensified after 2022, when Texas Governor Greg Abbott began relocating tens of thousands of migrants from the Mexican border to Chicago, placing significant strain on city services.
Federal interventions escalated last summer, when the Trump administration deployed federal immigration agents to Chicago and sought to activate the National Guard - a deployment that was blocked by a federal district court. During months of confrontations linked to the surge, agents employed tear gas in residential areas, detained protesters and were involved in two shootings that left one person dead. One of those killed was Silverio Villegas Gonzalez, a father of two from Mexico. Illinois officials, including Governor Pritzker, described the federal response as an "occupation" and initiated a commission to investigate alleged misconduct by federal agents.
Stratton has stressed the local impact of the enforcement actions, recounting that her 10-year-old daughter’s school was placed on lockdown twice because of nearby ICE raids. She joined neighborhood rapid response efforts and marched with protesters opposing the federal operations. "It’s not even about immigration. It’s to instill fear, and it’s a part of his authoritarian agenda," Stratton said, arguing that congressional Democrats’ failure to constrain the administration’s immigration tactics should disqualify rivals from higher office.
Votes and proposals in Congress
The congressional debate has included measures on Homeland Security funding. In the aftermath of federal immigration agents fatally shooting U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Representatives Kelly and Krishnamoorthi voted against a bill to appropriate additional funds to the Department of Homeland Security, and they supported Senate Democrats in forcing a partial department shutdown that has persisted for a month.
Kelly described a vision for a comprehensive overhaul of enforcement practices. "You can’t wear masks. You have to have cameras on. You can’t just kidnap people off the street. You can’t just go to people’s homes without a warrant. We need to dismantle and rebuild," she said.
Krishnamoorthi has framed his opposition to the administration’s immigration enforcement as personal. Born in New Delhi and raised in Peoria, Illinois, he said the issue resonates with his background. His advocacy has made him a target of criticism and hostility. After he was blocked by ICE agents from inspecting a suburban Chicago immigration processing facility that became a frequent site of clashes between protesters and federal agents, a Florida city council member called for mass deportations of Indian immigrants and labeled Krishnamoorthi a "foreign occupier."
"I’m a racial, religious and ethnic minority and an immigrant with 29 letters in my name. I care deeply about making sure that nobody gets otherized, whoever they are, including immigrants. And I want immigrants to feel like this is home, that this is where they belong," Krishnamoorthi said.
Campaign tensions over donor ties
Stratton has criticized Krishnamoorthi’s campaign for accepting contributions from donors with ties to Republican interests, highlighting in particular donations from Shyam Sankar, chief technology officer at Palantir, a firm that does work with Homeland Security. Krishnamoorthi’s campaign in January said it had donated $29,300 of contributions Sankar had made since 2015 to immigrant advocacy groups in Illinois.
The prominence of immigration policy in this primary reflects both local dynamics in Illinois and broader Democratic debates about how forcefully to confront federal enforcement practices. Candidates are measuring policy positions against political calculations in a state where the general election is widely expected to favor the Democratic nominee, but where intra-party debates may still shape messaging and coalition-building ahead of November.
Summary
The leading Democratic contenders for Illinois’ open Senate seat are campaigning on major reforms to ICE and Homeland Security, driven in part by federal law enforcement actions that resulted in deaths and by a surge of migrants relocated to Chicago. Incumbent Senator Dick Durbin’s record on immigrants, a large Chicago immigrant community and recent federal interventions have elevated immigration into a primary-defining issue.
Key points
- Top Democratic candidates have pledged to reform or abolish ICE and reshape the Department of Homeland Security, making immigration central to the Illinois primary - sectors affected: politics, government services, defense and homeland security contractors.
- Fundraising and endorsements are reshaping the race: Krishnamoorthi had a large fundraising advantage through February, but a $5 million family PAC donation to Stratton has boosted her standing - sectors affected: political advertising, media, and campaign finance.
- High-profile federal enforcement actions in Chicago and the deaths of U.S. citizens linked to immigration operations have intensified scrutiny of federal agencies and influenced legislative votes on Homeland Security funding - sectors affected: law enforcement, municipal services, and social services.
Risks and uncertainties
- Adopting a hard-line stance against ICE could pose general election risks for Democrats in some jurisdictions, particularly if such positions become focal points in Republican messaging - sectors at risk: political campaigns and media.
- Continued federal enforcement operations and legal challenges - including court interventions blocking National Guard deployments - create operational uncertainty for local governments and for agencies coordinating with federal partners - sectors at risk: municipal services, public safety, and homeland security contracting.
- Donor controversies and intra-party disputes over contributions could complicate candidate messaging and voter perceptions during the primary, introducing volatility into campaign spending and endorsements - sectors at risk: political fundraising and related advertising markets.
Disclosure
None