Politics June 3, 2026 08:47 AM

Hilton and Becerra Lead in Tight California Governor Primary; Mail-In Ballots Still Pending

Early results show Republican commentator and Democratic former cabinet secretary topping an all-party primary as other high-profile contests remain competitive

By Maya Rios

With precincts only partially reporting, Republican Steve Hilton held an early lead with 27.8% and Democrat Xavier Becerra was close behind at 25.4% in California's open primary for governor. Both candidates have cleared more than 1.2 million votes, while billionaire Tom Steyer trailed at 19.6%. Large volumes of mail ballots remain to be counted; ballots postmarked on or before election day have one week to arrive. If the standings hold, the top-two finishers will advance to the November 3 general election.

Hilton and Becerra Lead in Tight California Governor Primary; Mail-In Ballots Still Pending

Key Points

  • Early partial returns show Steve Hilton with 27.8% and Xavier Becerra with 25.4% in the California gubernatorial primary; both have over 1.2 million votes in the current count - Impact: Political leadership and state policy direction affecting multiple sectors.
  • Tom Steyer trailed at 19.6%, with substantial vote gaps separating the top three candidates - Impact: Fundraising dynamics and campaign expenditures in the months ahead.
  • Large volumes of mail-in ballots remain uncounted; ballots postmarked on or before election day may arrive up to one week later, creating potential shifts in final standings - Impact: Financial markets and state-focused policy-sensitive sectors may face short-term uncertainty.

Preliminary statewide returns

Early, partial returns from California's open gubernatorial primary show Republican television commentator Steve Hilton leading the field with 27.8% of the vote and Democratic former cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra close behind at 25.4%, according to official tabulations. Each candidate has secured more than 1.2 million votes, with Becerra trailing by nearly 120,000 ballots in the current count.

Democratic philanthropist Tom Steyer was in third place with 19.6% of the vote, more than 407,000 votes behind the leader in the partial tally. Dozens of other candidates on the ballot trailed well behind the top three.


Mail ballots and counting timeline

Most Californians cast ballots by mail, and election officials allow ballots that are postmarked on or before election day to arrive up to one week after election day. That continuing flow of mail-in ballots means the current percentages and raw vote margins could shift as additional ballots are processed and tallied.


How the primary works

The contest is an open, all-party primary - often referred to as a "jungle primary" - in which candidates from all parties appear on the same ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. If the present standings hold, the November match-up would pit a Democrat against a Republican.


What is at stake

California's next governor will take the reins of a roughly $4 trillion economy and will inherit policy challenges highlighted by water management, housing affordability and homelessness. The office is being vacated by term-limited Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.


Profiles and remarks

Xavier Becerra is a former state attorney general and U.S. congressman from Los Angeles who served as secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden. If elected in November, he would become the first Latino elected governor in a state where roughly 40% of the population is Hispanic or Latino.

"While I take nothing for granted - there are lots of ballots left to be counted - it appears that we are on track to advance to November,"

Becerra told supporters late on Tuesday.

Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, has said his campaign marks his first run for public office. A one-time adviser to former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, Hilton became a U.S. citizen in 2021.

"California, what an incredible honor. The first time I’ve run for office, over a million people rising, voting for me this time with a funny accent,"

Hilton said to supporters, later leading the crowd in chants of "Change is coming!"

Republicans have not won a statewide office in California since former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's term ended in January 2011.


Other headline races

The Los Angeles mayoral primary also showed a fragmented field. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, a Democrat, led with 34.8% of the vote. Television personality Spencer Pratt held second place with 30.4%, and Democratic City Councilmember Nithya Raman was third with 22.3%. Like the gubernatorial contest, the mayoral race advances the top two finishers to the November general election.

In a congressional primary watched by both parties, incumbent U.S. Representative David Valadao, a Republican, captured 44.5% of the vote. Educator Randy Villegas, a Democrat, took 29.8% and Democratic state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains received 25.7%. Democrats have been targeting the seat as part of efforts to secure a House majority in November.

In another battleground, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond led with 41.6% against Democrat Marni von Wilpert's 19.5% in a race to succeed a retiring incumbent in a reconfigured district. Redistricting shifted liberal Palm Springs from its Riverside County district into an inland San Diego County seat where incumbent Representative Darrell Issa chose not to run for reelection. Desmond and von Wilpert will move on to face each other in the November general election.


Context on counting and next steps

With the allowance for mail ballots to arrive up to a week after election day and precincts only partially reporting, officials cautioned that final outcomes could change as additional ballots are received and processed. The current tallies indicate likely front-runners but do not represent finalized results.


Summary of current standings

  • Steve Hilton - 27.8% (leading in partial returns)
  • Xavier Becerra - 25.4% (trailing by nearly 120,000 votes in partial returns)
  • Tom Steyer - 19.6% (more than 407,000 votes behind the leader in partial returns)

Additional ballots arriving by mail and continuing counts across precincts will determine the official two candidates who advance to the November 3 general election.

Risks

  • Incomplete ballot counts introduce uncertainty about which two candidates will advance to the November general election - Affects political risk assessments for sectors sensitive to state policy outcomes such as housing, utilities and water management.
  • Shifts in the final vote totals as mailed ballots are processed could alter match-ups and campaign strategies, potentially affecting expectations around regulatory and fiscal priorities - Affects investor assessments of state-level regulatory risk and infrastructure-related sectors.
  • Competitive down-ballot races and redistricting-driven contests could change party control dynamics in targeted U.S. House seats, influencing federal legislative outcomes and market expectations tied to congressional balance - Affects sectors dependent on federal policy, including energy and infrastructure.

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