California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks on Tuesday called on Democrats running for governor to take a hard look at their campaign prospects and decide whether continuing to run serves the party’s broader interests. Hicks framed the appeal in an open letter to the party’s gubernatorial hopefuls, urging them to "honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign."
His message centers on a structural feature of California's election system: the top-two, open primary. Under the system adopted in 2012, the two candidates receiving the most votes in the state’s primary advance to the general election, irrespective of party affiliation. Hicks warned that if two Republicans were to finish first and second in the June 2 primary, Democrats would have no candidate on the November ballot in what is widely regarded as a heavily Democratic state.
Hicks tempered the warning with a note on probability. "Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low," he wrote. "However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility."
The state’s open primary format has left both major parties represented on general-election ballots since its adoption, and Democrats have won every gubernatorial race since 2011. Current Governor Gavin Newsom is serving a second term and is ineligible to run for a third term under state law, which limits governors to two terms.
The 2026 gubernatorial contest has attracted a crowded Democratic field, with more than a dozen declared candidates among whom are former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and California Democratic Party Vice Chair Betty Yee. Fewer than a dozen Republicans have declared their candidacies so far.
Given concerns about the electoral dynamics created by a large pool of Democratic candidates, the state party has opted not to endorse any individual contender. Hicks pointed to the upcoming filing deadline this Friday as a practical impetus for candidates to re-evaluate their campaigns and the potential consequences of splitting the Democratic vote.
The chair’s letter frames the issue as both a strategic calculation and a collective responsibility. While emphasizing that the risk of a Republican lockout in November is not high, the party leadership has signaled it will pursue measures to minimize the chance of that outcome and is asking candidates to consider how their decisions affect the party’s general-election prospects.
Context and next steps
Candidates now face a near-term decision point with the filing deadline approaching. The party's stance of withholding endorsements, combined with the plurality of Democratic entries, leaves the field open to strategic consolidation if candidates choose to step aside or coordinate. How those dynamics play out will determine whether the theoretical risk Hicks flagged moves closer to reality or remains a remote possibility.