Politics March 3, 2026

California Democratic Chair Urges Gubernatorial Hopefuls to Reassess Campaigns Amid Top-Two Primary Risk

Rusty Hicks warns a crowded Democratic field could allow two Republicans to advance to the general election under California’s open primary rules

By Derek Hwang
California Democratic Chair Urges Gubernatorial Hopefuls to Reassess Campaigns Amid Top-Two Primary Risk

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks has urged candidates seeking the party’s gubernatorial nomination to 'honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign,' citing concern that an overcrowded field could permit two Republicans to secure the top spots in the June 2 open primary and leave Democrats off the November ballot. Hicks acknowledged the scenario is unlikely but not impossible and emphasized the party’s commitment to take steps to avoid that result. More than a dozen Democrats and fewer than a dozen Republicans have already declared, and the state party has not endorsed any candidate ahead of the Friday filing deadline.

Key Points

  • California follows a top-two open primary system - the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
  • Rusty Hicks urged Democratic gubernatorial candidates to 'honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign' to reduce the risk of two Republicans advancing in the June 2 primary.
  • More than a dozen Democrats, including Xavier Becerra and Betty Yee, have declared candidacies; fewer than a dozen Republicans have declared. The state party has not endorsed any candidate ahead of the Friday filing deadline.

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks on Tuesday called on Democrats running for governor to take a hard look at their campaign prospects and decide whether continuing to run serves the party’s broader interests. Hicks framed the appeal in an open letter to the party’s gubernatorial hopefuls, urging them to "honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign."

His message centers on a structural feature of California's election system: the top-two, open primary. Under the system adopted in 2012, the two candidates receiving the most votes in the state’s primary advance to the general election, irrespective of party affiliation. Hicks warned that if two Republicans were to finish first and second in the June 2 primary, Democrats would have no candidate on the November ballot in what is widely regarded as a heavily Democratic state.

Hicks tempered the warning with a note on probability. "Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low," he wrote. "However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility."

The state’s open primary format has left both major parties represented on general-election ballots since its adoption, and Democrats have won every gubernatorial race since 2011. Current Governor Gavin Newsom is serving a second term and is ineligible to run for a third term under state law, which limits governors to two terms.

The 2026 gubernatorial contest has attracted a crowded Democratic field, with more than a dozen declared candidates among whom are former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and California Democratic Party Vice Chair Betty Yee. Fewer than a dozen Republicans have declared their candidacies so far.

Given concerns about the electoral dynamics created by a large pool of Democratic candidates, the state party has opted not to endorse any individual contender. Hicks pointed to the upcoming filing deadline this Friday as a practical impetus for candidates to re-evaluate their campaigns and the potential consequences of splitting the Democratic vote.

The chair’s letter frames the issue as both a strategic calculation and a collective responsibility. While emphasizing that the risk of a Republican lockout in November is not high, the party leadership has signaled it will pursue measures to minimize the chance of that outcome and is asking candidates to consider how their decisions affect the party’s general-election prospects.


Context and next steps

Candidates now face a near-term decision point with the filing deadline approaching. The party's stance of withholding endorsements, combined with the plurality of Democratic entries, leaves the field open to strategic consolidation if candidates choose to step aside or coordinate. How those dynamics play out will determine whether the theoretical risk Hicks flagged moves closer to reality or remains a remote possibility.

Risks

  • A crowded Democratic field could split the party's vote in the June 2 primary, increasing the chance that two Republicans finish first and second and leaving no Democrat on the November ballot - this affects electoral outcomes and political risk in California.
  • The absence of a party endorsement amid a large candidate pool may prolong fragmentation and strategic uncertainty among Democratic voters, which could influence campaign resource allocation and media attention.
  • Compressed timelines around the filing deadline may pressure candidates into rapid strategic decisions that could have unintended consequences for voter consolidation and general-election competitiveness.

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