Economy February 24, 2026

White House Economist Calls Weekend AI Risk Paper 'Science Fiction'

Acting CEA chair says a scenario projecting large-scale job losses and market declines conflicts with core economic identities

By Derek Hwang
White House Economist Calls Weekend AI Risk Paper 'Science Fiction'

Pierre Yared, acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, dismissed a weekend research paper portraying a 2028 rapid-AI scenario as 'science fiction.' Speaking after an address at the National Association for Business Economics in Washington and in a subsequent interview, Yared argued the report's claim that AI-driven productivity would eliminate large swaths of human labor runs counter to fundamental economic relationships. Markets reacted: the Nasdaq Composite slid more than 1% on Monday amid technology sector weakness tied to the report's negative tone.

Key Points

  • A White House economist, Pierre Yared, publicly rejected a research paper portraying a rapid-AI 2028 scenario that would produce mass job losses and market declines.
  • The Citrini Research scenario projects higher productivity alongside large-scale labor obsolescence, lower consumer spending and declines in stock indexes including the S&P 500.
  • Markets reacted to the paper's negative tone: the Nasdaq Composite fell more than 1% on Monday as technology shares weakened.

Overview

Pierre Yared, the acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, publicly rejected a recent research paper that painted a near-term, disruptive path for artificial intelligence. After speaking at the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, Yared — in an interview later the same day — characterized the paper as the stuff of fiction and argued its conclusions clash with established economic identities.

The report's scenario

The research note outlines a 2028 scenario in which rapid advances in machine intelligence substantially raise productivity but also render large segments of human labor redundant. According to the paper, that dynamic would lead to significant job losses, reduced consumer spending and declines in major stock indexes, including the S&P 500.

Yared's response

Yared described the paper as an implausible projection of economic outcomes, saying it conflicts with foundational economic accounting and relationships. "The Citrini report is an interesting piece of science fiction - and I like science fiction," Yared said. "But I think that if you really look at it, and think long and hard about it, it violates some of the basic identities in economics."

Market reaction

Investor sentiment shifted after the research note circulated. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite fell by more than 1% as technology shares led declines tied to negative sentiment from the paper.

Context and limits

The research note sets out a specific hypothetical pathway for AI-driven disruption and links that pathway to measurable labor and market outcomes. Yared's critique focused on the internal consistency of the paper's economic logic rather than disputing the technical aspects of machine intelligence.


Key factual points in this report are drawn from public comments by the acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and the findings summarized in the referenced research paper. Market moves cited reflect trading on the stated Monday.

Risks

  • If the research scenario were accurate, the technology sector and broader equity markets could face downward pressure from shifts in investor sentiment and expectations.
  • Projected large-scale job losses and falling consumer spending in the paper, if realized, would pose risks to the labor market and consumption-driven sectors of the economy.
  • Disagreements over economic interpretation and modeling assumptions increase uncertainty for policymakers and markets assessing AI-related economic impacts.

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