Overview
Pierre Yared, the acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, publicly rejected a recent research paper that painted a near-term, disruptive path for artificial intelligence. After speaking at the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, Yared — in an interview later the same day — characterized the paper as the stuff of fiction and argued its conclusions clash with established economic identities.
The report's scenario
The research note outlines a 2028 scenario in which rapid advances in machine intelligence substantially raise productivity but also render large segments of human labor redundant. According to the paper, that dynamic would lead to significant job losses, reduced consumer spending and declines in major stock indexes, including the S&P 500.
Yared's response
Yared described the paper as an implausible projection of economic outcomes, saying it conflicts with foundational economic accounting and relationships. "The Citrini report is an interesting piece of science fiction - and I like science fiction," Yared said. "But I think that if you really look at it, and think long and hard about it, it violates some of the basic identities in economics."
Market reaction
Investor sentiment shifted after the research note circulated. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite fell by more than 1% as technology shares led declines tied to negative sentiment from the paper.
Context and limits
The research note sets out a specific hypothetical pathway for AI-driven disruption and links that pathway to measurable labor and market outcomes. Yared's critique focused on the internal consistency of the paper's economic logic rather than disputing the technical aspects of machine intelligence.
Key factual points in this report are drawn from public comments by the acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and the findings summarized in the referenced research paper. Market moves cited reflect trading on the stated Monday.