Economy March 6, 2026

Wall Street Futures Slip as Middle East Fighting Sends Energy Costs Higher; Jobs Report in Focus

Market participants weigh rising crude and delivery disruptions against upcoming U.S. employment data and chip-export debates

By Marcus Reed
Wall Street Futures Slip as Middle East Fighting Sends Energy Costs Higher; Jobs Report in Focus

U.S. equity futures declined Friday as intensified fighting in the Middle East raised concerns about higher energy prices and supply disruptions, while traders awaited a weekly jobs report. The U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran approached a week, contributing to a sharp weekly jump in oil and interruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Data strength and elevated crude have pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.

Key Points

  • Escalating Middle East conflict and halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven the biggest weekly oil price rise since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, pressuring airlines and lifting energy stocks.
  • Investors await a weekly U.S. jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET while stronger economic readings and higher crude have pushed back the market's expectation for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut from July to October, according to LSEG-compiled data.
  • Tech and AI-related names are seeing mixed moves amid debate over export rules for AI chips and earnings guidance; Marvell jumped after an above-estimate fiscal 2028 revenue forecast while Nvidia and AMD slipped about 0.7%.

Market snapshot

U.S. stock index futures opened lower on Friday as investors reacted to escalating conflict in the Middle East and prepared for a pivotal weekly U.S. jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The intensifying U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran was approaching a week with no clear end in sight, a dynamic that has put upward pressure on energy prices and prompted concerns about supply chains tied to shipping lanes.

Energy and logistics pressures

Oil prices have recorded their largest weekly increase since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine amid a near standstill of shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has pressured crude markets and lent support to energy-related equities, even as some broader market sectors retreated.

Natural gas producer Qatar warned in a report that, even if the Middle East conflict ceased immediately, it would take "weeks to months" to restore a normal cycle of deliveries. That prospect of prolonged delivery normalization has contributed to gains in natural gas exchange traded funds, which rose 2.2% and 1%, respectively.

In premarket trading, crude prices inched higher while major U.S. airline stocks reacted negatively; American and Delta each slipped about 1%. The S&P 500's passenger airlines subindex was on track for a 9% weekly decline as carriers face higher fuel costs and operational strains tied to regional instability.

Macro data and policy expectations

Investors are closely watching the weekly jobs report for signs of labor market resilience or softening, with attention also on how corporate integration of artificial intelligence could shape employment trends. Recent stronger-than-expected economic readings this week, combined with the crude price spike, have shifted market pricing for the Federal Reserve's first 25-basis-point interest rate cut from July to October compared with expectations a month ago, based on LSEG-compiled data.

Futures and early trading moves

At 05:14 a.m. ET, e-minis pointed lower with the Dow E-minis down 130 points, or 0.27%, S&P 500 E-minis down 23 points, or 0.34%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis down 102.5 points, or 0.41%. AI-chip names were softer, with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices each off about 0.7%.

U.S. officials are reportedly debating a new regulatory framework for exporting artificial intelligence chips, though the proposed rules were not final. That policy uncertainty comes as market participants weigh demand for AI hardware against potential export controls.

Sector and stock movers

Despite the cautious tone, U.S. equities have outperformed Asian and European markets this week, buoyed by a 1.5% rebound in technology stocks after losses in February. The Nasdaq, which is tech-heavy, appeared on course for modest weekly gains.

Within the semiconductor space, Marvell Technology surged 12% after forecasting fiscal 2028 revenue above analysts' estimates. Energy names also posted gains as investors priced in the supply shock - Occidental climbed 2% and NextDecade rose 2.3%.

On the retail front, Gap fell 5.9% following a warning about pressure and uncertainty from U.S. import tariffs and the company’s forecast that annual adjusted profit would be largely below estimates. Oracle edged up about 1% after a report said the enterprise software company plans thousands of job cuts as it contends with a cash crunch tied to a large AI data center expansion effort.

Outlook

Markets will be sensitive to the jobs print later in the morning and to further developments in the Middle East, both of which could influence expectations for inflation, interest rate timelines, and corporate cost structures. For now, the mix of higher energy prices, policy uncertainty on AI exports, and uneven corporate guidance are setting a cautious tone into the weekend.

Risks

  • Prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and slow restoration of normal gas delivery cycles - this affects energy markets, airlines, and industries dependent on fuel and logistics.
  • Shifts in Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations driven by stronger-than-expected data and rising crude prices - this weighs on interest-rate-sensitive sectors and asset valuations.
  • Regulatory uncertainty on AI chip exports and corporate cost pressures from AI infrastructure investments - potential impact on semiconductor suppliers, large tech employers, and labor markets.

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