ING's recent research concludes that, despite widespread concern about automation, artificial intelligence has not yet produced a measurable impact on labour markets in several major economies.
The bank examined vacancy data covering the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany and reported "no obvious sign" that the sectors most exposed to AI have experienced a faster drop in job postings than other sectors.
To reach that conclusion, ING compared hiring data from Indeed across roughly 50 sectors with AI exposure rankings generated by a chatbot. The comparison looked at changes in vacancies since early 2024 and found little to no correlation between higher AI exposure and weaker hiring trends.
ING also reviewed data on layoffs and tool adoption. Data from Challenger, which tracks layoff announcements, suggests that fewer than one in 10 job cuts since last April were attributed to AI. Complementing that, St. Louis Fed figures show only 12% of U.S. workers were using generative AI on a daily basis as of November, a share that was only marginally higher than a year earlier.
From ING's perspective, these indicators point toward conventional economic drivers continuing to shape employment patterns. The bank noted that companies' appetite to hire has cooled across most sectors in the U.S. and the U.K., while firms have generally remained reluctant to implement large-scale staff cuts. That combination, ING said, has disproportionately affected younger workers and contributed to rising youth unemployment rates.
ING further highlighted the composition of recent U.S. job gains, observing that January's surge in payrolls may have been concentrated in construction and private healthcare services. The bank said this raised questions about the breadth and durability of the reported employment expansion.
"For now, the drivers of the jobs market look more traditional," ING said, adding that while AI could eventually reshape employment, current data do not show widespread disruption.
The findings do not rule out future effects from AI, but they indicate that, at present, vacancy and layoff metrics across the examined economies do not support the narrative of a large-scale, AI-driven contraction in hiring.
Context and implications
- ING's review covers vacancy postings, layoff announcements and worker adoption metrics to assess AI's present influence on labour markets.
- Across the U.S., U.K., France and Germany, hiring has cooled broadly, but this slowdown is not currently linked to AI exposure according to the datasets ING reviewed.
- The composition of recent U.S. job growth and relatively low daily usage of generative AI suggest traditional economic factors remain the dominant forces for now.