U.S. employment expanded more than forecasters anticipated in March as nonfarm payrolls climbed by 178,000, a figure that outpaced the median economist estimate of 65,000. Forecasts ahead of the report had varied considerably - ranging from a decline of 16,000 to an increase of 151,000 - underscoring the uncertainty that surrounded expectations going into the release.
The headline gain was tempered by downward revisions to previous months. February's payrolls number was revised to a decline of 133,000, steeper than the prior report that showed a drop of 92,000. Net revisions across the two months preceding March produced a modest 7,000 reduction in reported payrolls.
Despite those adjustments, the March report suggests the labor market retained a degree of resilience. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%, coming in slightly better than forecasts that had anticipated no change.
Wage data in the report pointed to some moderation. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% from the prior month, underperforming the expected 0.3% rise and down from the previous month's 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, hourly earnings were up 3.5%, missing the forecast of 3.7%.
Taken together, the report delivered a stronger-than-expected payrolls print alongside signs of softer wage momentum and revisions that trimmed recent job counts. The divergence between the solid headline employment gain and the downward revisions illustrates the mixed signals present in the labor data.
This remains a developing story. Additional analysis and context may follow as market participants and policymakers digest the details of the report.
Clear summary
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 in March, beating the median estimate of 65,000.
- February payrolls were revised down to a decline of 133,000 from a previously reported drop of 92,000, with net revisions over the prior two months trimming 7,000 jobs.
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%; average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year, both below expectations.