Summary: A poll conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce and Bain & Company reveals a marked deterioration in confidence among US investors in France. Only 17% of respondents expect economic conditions in France to improve in the next two to three years, while 55% say conditions have worsened over the past year. The survey highlights concerns about policy stability and the government's capacity to deliver reforms before the 2027 elections.
Survey findings
The survey results show a pronounced swing in sentiment compared with earlier years. In 2018, 72% of those surveyed anticipated a better outlook after President Emmanuel Macron's first election, when his pro-business platform promised tax cuts and reforms aimed at attracting investment. Optimism rose again to 74% shortly before Macron’s reelection in 2022. The new poll records the opposite trend, with only 17% now expecting improvement in the coming two to three years and 55% reporting that conditions have declined over the last year.
Hiring and investment intentions
Respondents signalled concrete adjustments to operations in France. According to the survey, 28% of American investors plan to reduce their workforce in France in 2026, while only 18% intend to add jobs. Those responses indicate that firms with US ownership or ties are reassessing their on-the-ground presence in response to the current environment.
Confidence in governance and reform
The poll also measured faith in the government’s ability to implement economic reforms before the 2027 elections. A substantial 77% of respondents said they lack confidence that necessary reforms will be enacted in time. This view comes amid heightened policy uncertainty after President Macron called snap legislative elections in 2024, which produced a hung parliament that has since struggled with fiscal policy decisions and experienced multiple government collapses.
Political backdrop
Macron is approaching the final year of his second term and is constitutionally barred from seeking a third. Current polling cited in the survey indicates that far-right leader Marine Le Pen or her ally Jordan Bardella are leading contenders to succeed him. The impending leadership transition and the fractured legislative landscape are shown in the survey to be important drivers of investor unease.
Implications
For US investors and firms operating in France, the combination of lower optimism, plans to reduce staffing, and weak confidence in reform delivery suggests a reassessment of near-term commitments. The survey points to heightened sensitivity to political developments and fiscal policy uncertainty as central influences on investment decisions.
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