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Economy February 13, 2026

U.S. Futures Trim Losses After January CPI Comes In Slightly Cooler Than Expected

Monthly and annual CPI prints modestly below forecasts leave market bets on rate cuts intact

By Maya Rios
U.S. Futures Trim Losses After January CPI Comes In Slightly Cooler Than Expected

U.S. stock index futures pared earlier losses after the Labor Department reported January Consumer Price Index readings that were marginally softer than economists had forecast. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year and 0.2% month-on-month; core CPI, which excludes food and energy, matched the annual estimate at 2.5% and was 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Key Points

  • January Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.5% estimate.
  • Monthly headline CPI increased 0.2% versus an expected 0.3%; core CPI was 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both matching estimates.
  • U.S. equity futures pared earlier losses, with Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-minis modestly down at 08:32 a.m. ET.

U.S. equity futures reduced their declines on Friday following a Labor Department release showing January inflation readings that came in slightly below consensus expectations, keeping the Federal Reserve seemingly positioned to consider interest rate cuts later in the year.

The Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% on a year-over-year basis, under the 2.5% gain that economists polled by Reuters had anticipated. On a month-over-month basis, headline CPI advanced 0.2%, compared with an expected 0.3% rise.

When volatile food and energy prices are removed, core CPI was reported at 2.5% year-over-year, in line with estimates. Core monthly inflation registered 0.3%, matching the month-on-month forecast of 0.3%.

Market reaction was measured. At 08:32 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 11 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 E-minis were down 3.75 points, or 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 36.5 points, or 0.15%. The data helped pare earlier declines in these futures contracts.

Context and immediate market response

The report's headline and core readings diverged slightly from expectations: headline CPI was a touch softer than forecast on both an annual and monthly basis, while core CPI matched consensus on the annual and monthly measures. That mix appeared sufficient to nudge futures off their earlier weakness without producing a pronounced market rally.

Summary of the data

  • Headline CPI: +2.4% year-over-year (estimate 2.5%).
  • Headline CPI: +0.2% month-over-month (estimate +0.3%).
  • Core CPI (ex-food and energy): +2.5% year-over-year (in line with estimates).
  • Core CPI: +0.3% month-on-month (in line with estimates).
  • Futures at 08:32 a.m. ET: Dow E-minis -11 points (-0.01%), S&P 500 E-minis -3.75 points (-0.05%), Nasdaq 100 E-minis -36.5 points (-0.15%).

What this means for markets

The slightly cooler-than-expected headline inflation print, combined with core readings that matched forecasts, coincided with futures trimming losses. The report kept expectations alive for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, according to the market interpretation reflected in futures prices at the time noted above.

Risks

  • The outlook for future Federal Reserve actions remains dependent on incoming data; the report kept rate cut expectations intact but did not eliminate uncertainty about timing.
  • Market reactions can shift quickly; the futures movements noted were measured and could reverse as new information emerges.

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