U.S. stock index futures showed little net movement on Friday as market participants paused for key economic readings that are expected to inform the outlook for monetary policy later in the year. Investors were also tracking geopolitical tensions and legal developments that could affect trade flows and corporate pockets.
A busy economic calendar included the preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product and the Personal Consumption Expenditure index - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - along with February business activity and consumer sentiment figures. According to a Reuters poll of economists, data at 8:30 a.m. ET was expected to show U.S. GDP rose at a 3.0% annualized pace in the most recent quarter, following a 4.4% annualized gain in the July-September quarter.
On the outlook for cyclical assets, Goldman Sachs economists said: "Market pricing of growth has been choppier relative to the signal from the data." They added, "We think there is scope for cyclical assets to continue to draw support from ongoing tailwinds from a US economy that is heating up, while protecting against risks and valuation challenges in other areas."
Technology companies have faced downward pressure in recent months amid concerns about elevated valuations and what some see as limited evidence that large-scale AI investments are yet delivering commensurate returns. Sectors from software to real estate were notably hit last week amid worries that newly introduced AI models could disrupt existing business models.
Investor sentiment across U.S. equities was generally steady through the week except for Thursday, when declines in private equity names and falls in high-profile companies such as Apple and Walmart unnerved the market.
In Washington, attention turned to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could issue a ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs. Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists have said that if the tariffs are struck down, there is a risk that more than $175 billion in U.S. tariff collections would need to be refunded.
Oil prices eased off six-month highs as market participants considered the implications of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran it must make a deal over its nuclear program or "really bad things" would happen, a comment that factored into energy market assessments.
As of 06:09 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were down 3 points, or 0.04%; Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 3.25 points, or 0.01%; and Dow E-minis had slipped 39 points, or 0.08%.
In company news, Akamai Technologies slid 10.9% in premarket trading after the cloud firm forecast first-quarter adjusted profit below Wall Street estimates. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms gained as bitcoin rose 1.4% to $67,840. Crypto exchange operator Coinbase added 1.5%, while bitcoin hoarder Strategy rose 1.6%.
Market implications
- Upcoming GDP and PCE data will be closely watched for signals on inflation and growth that could influence the timeline for Fed easing.
- Technology and software sectors remain vulnerable to re-rating amid valuation concerns and debate over the near-term payoff from AI investments.
- Energy markets are sensitive to geopolitical developments between the U.S. and Iran, which can briefly push oil prices higher or lower depending on perceived risk.