Economy March 11, 2026

U.S. February Budget Shortfall Holds at $308 Billion as Tariff Receipts Remain Unaffected by Court Decision

Receipts and spending rose in step for February while customs duties cooled; timing and treatment of tariff refunds remain unclear after Supreme Court ruling

By Caleb Monroe
U.S. February Budget Shortfall Holds at $308 Billion as Tariff Receipts Remain Unaffected by Court Decision

The U.S. budget deficit for February stood at $308 billion, nearly unchanged from the same month a year earlier, as a roughly equal rise in receipts and outlays left the monthly gap little changed. Treasury receipts totaled $313 billion, up $17 billion from a year earlier, while outlays reached $621 billion, also up $17 billion. Customs duties moderated in February, and Treasury officials say the data do not yet reflect the Supreme Court decision that struck down certain tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with uncertainty persisting about how any refunds would be recorded.

Key Points

  • February deficit: $308 billion, nearly unchanged year-on-year.
  • Receipts rose to $313 billion, up $17 billion or 6%; outlays were $621 billion, up $17 billion or 3%.
  • Net customs duties cooled to $26.6 billion in February; Customs and Border Protection stopped assessing certain tariffs from February 24.
  • Uncertainty remains over how the Supreme Court's ruling against IEEPA-based tariffs will appear in budget data given tariffs are paid with a lag.

WASHINGTON - The federal budget gap for February came in at $308 billion, essentially level with the same month a year ago, as increases in incoming revenues and government spending largely offset one another. February receipts totaled $313 billion, a gain of $17 billion or 6% from the prior year, while monthly outlays were $621 billion, up $17 billion or 3% from February 2025.

The year-on-year month comparison reflects the first full month in the Trump administration. Treasury officials pointed to several components behind the receipts growth. A $15 billion rise in individual withheld income taxes in February contributed to the increase, with the Treasury official saying part of that uptick reflected payments of 2025 year-end bonuses.

Those gains were tempered by larger tax refunds. Corporate tax refunds rose by $7 billion, and individual tax refunds increased by $6 billion, the Treasury official said, attributing the higher individual refunds to tax changes enacted last year by Republican lawmakers.

Customs and trade-related collections showed a modest step back in February. Net customs duties dropped to $26.6 billion in February, down from $27.7 billion in January and lower than the more than $30 billion collected in the final months of last year.

The Treasury official cautioned that the budget figures largely do not yet capture the impact of the Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs applied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as unlawful. Because tariffs are typically remitted on a lag, the official said the March budget data and later reports may show effects differently, noting also that U.S. Customs and Border Protection ceased assessing those specific tariffs on imports beginning February 24.

On the question of refunds tied to the IEEPA tariffs, the Treasury official said it remains unclear how any such reimbursements would be reflected in the reported budget statistics.


Contextual note: The report shows a month in which the headline deficit was little changed despite movement within receipts and outlays, and where the full fiscal impact of recent legal changes to tariff policy had not yet been recorded in the Treasury's monthly numbers.

Risks

  • Timing risk: Tariff-related revenue changes may appear in future monthly data because tariffs are generally paid a month in arrears - impacts markets tied to trade and importers.
  • Recording uncertainty: It is unclear how any refunds tied to the IEEPA tariffs will be reflected in Treasury statistics - this creates uncertainty for fiscal forecasts affecting government finance and bond markets.
  • Volatility in customs duties: The recent cooling in net customs collections introduces variability in trade-related receipts, which could affect sectors reliant on cross-border imports and retailers.

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