Economy February 6, 2026

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Edges Up in Early February as Inflation Expectations Shift

University of Michigan index ticks higher but remains low; short-term inflation outlook falls while five-year outlook rises slightly

By Leila Farooq
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Edges Up in Early February as Inflation Expectations Shift

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in early February from a revised 56.4 in January, marking a modest improvement. Short-term inflation expectations eased to 3.5% while five-year expectations inched up to 3.4%. Survey respondents continue to voice concerns about high prices and job security despite the modest uptick in sentiment.

Key Points

  • Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in early February from 56.4 in January - signals a modest gain in household attitudes.
  • Short-term inflation expectations fell to 3.5% from 4.0%, while five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.3% - mixed inflation outlook.
  • Persistent concerns about high prices and elevated risk of job loss remain widespread, keeping overall sentiment low from a historical perspective - important for consumer-driven sectors and labor-sensitive markets.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported a small gain in U.S. consumer sentiment in early February, with the headline Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 57.3 from a final reading of 56.4 in January. The movement represents a modest improvement in household attitudes, though the overall level remains low when viewed in historical context.

Economists polled had anticipated a decline in the index to 55.0, but the actual result surpassed that forecast. The survey also recorded a shift in inflation expectations: consumers' outlook for inflation over the next year fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January, while expectations for inflation over the next five years rose to 3.4% from 3.3% the prior month.

"While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small, and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread."

The survey indicates that, although there has been a slight lift in sentiment, households remain attentive to cost pressures and employment risks. The decline in one-year inflation expectations suggests some easing in immediate price concerns, even as longer-term expectations moved marginally higher.

The data provide a snapshot of household perceptions in early February: modestly improved confidence alongside persistent worry about the impact of high prices on personal finances and the chance of job loss. The mixed signals in inflation expectations - down in the near term but up over a five-year horizon - reflect differing views on how price trends will evolve.

Overall, the report portrays a consumer base that is cautiously optimistic relative to recent months but still constrained by substantial uncertainty about costs and labor market stability.


Methodological note: The figures reported here come from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers for early February and reference the index levels and inflation expectations as reported in the survey results.

Risks

  • Erosion of personal finances from sustained high prices - poses downside risk to consumer spending, affecting retail and discretionary sectors.
  • Elevated perceived risk of job loss - creates uncertainty for labor-sensitive industries and may constrain durable goods purchases and services spending.

More from Economy

SCOTUS Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs Offers Relief but Leaves Major Questions for Markets and Treasury Feb 21, 2026 USMCA Goods Largely Exempted From New 10% Global Tariff, But Review Threat Looms Feb 20, 2026 U.S. Trade Office to Open Broad Section 301 Reviews Covering Major Partners Feb 20, 2026 Supreme Court Term Spotlight: High-Stakes Cases Shaping Law and Policy Feb 20, 2026 Trump Vows Fresh 10% Global Tariff After Supreme Court Limits His Trade Authority Feb 20, 2026