WASHINGTON, March 13 - U.S. household spending increased modestly in January, outpacing economists' expectations and coming alongside continued strength in underlying inflation measures. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending - which represents more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity - climbed 0.4% in January, the same monthly rise recorded in December.
Prior forecasts among economists had centered on a smaller increase of 0.3% for January. The BEA noted it is still catching up on data releases after delays tied to last year's government shutdown.
Analysts are weighing the spending data together with inflation readings and global developments in forming their outlooks for monetary policy. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation gauge the U.S. central bank follows closely, rose 0.3% in January after a 0.4% gain in December. Over the 12 months through January, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, down slightly from 2.9% in December.
Stripping out volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index recorded a 0.4% monthly increase in January, matching December's pace. On a year-on-year basis, core PCE inflation was 3.1% in January, up from 3.0% in December. Economists had expected core PCE to rise 0.4% for the month.
Those inflation readings are central to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Policymakers are widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range at their policy meeting next week. Market participants are pricing in only a single rate reduction this year, likely in September, narrowing the window for near-term easing.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are complicating the outlook. The conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has pushed oil prices higher, feeding directly into retail fuel costs. According to data from a motorists' advocacy group, retail gasoline prices have jumped by more than 20% to $3.60 per gallon since the onset of the conflict.
Rising gasoline and diesel prices are expected to squeeze household budgets and raise transportation costs across supply chains. Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said gasoline prices in the U.S. are likely to climb to around $3.75 per gallon nationally in the coming weeks and that it could take much of the year to return to pre-conflict levels near $3 per gallon. She warned that higher diesel costs will feed higher transportation expenses and lift price pressures along supply chains. Additionally, Bostjancic noted that disruptions to agricultural fertilizer shipments will put upward pressure on food prices.
Economists also highlighted that the market turmoil driven by the war is creating wealth losses among higher-income households, a cohort that disproportionately drives consumer outlays and overall economic activity. That reduction in wealth could prompt some households to curb spending. Lower-income households, meanwhile, have already been scaling back after import tariffs contributed to higher goods prices.
Forecasters expect the combined effect of higher energy costs and wealth impacts to weigh on economic activity in the second quarter.
The data and recent price moves leave policymakers monitoring trade-offs between sustaining growth and reining in persistent inflation pressures. For investors, better information remains a key input to decision-making. Tools that pair institutional-grade data with advanced analytical approaches can help surface opportunities, though they do not guarantee successful investments. Readers seeking deeper analytical resources may consider services that compile data and insights to inform portfolio decisions.