Economy March 4, 2026

UK stocks climb as diplomatic signals ease Middle East fears; Vistry tumbles on margin warning

FTSE 100 edges higher amid tentative signs of negotiation in the Middle East, while housebuilder Vistry warns of weaker 2026 margins and several UK corporates report mixed results

By Avery Klein
UK stocks climb as diplomatic signals ease Middle East fears; Vistry tumbles on margin warning

British equity indexes moved into positive territory on Wednesday after earlier losses tied to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Markets reacted to reports that Iranian operatives had approached the CIA about possible terms to end the conflict, a development that traders interpreted as a potential de-escalation signal. The blue-chip FTSE 100 was trading up, while corporate newsflow from UK-listed companies produced sharp moves, most notably a steep fall in Vistry shares after the housebuilder flagged lower margins for 2026 despite broadly in-line 2025 profits.

Key Points

  • Markets advanced after reports that Iranian operatives approached the CIA to discuss potential terms for ending the Middle East conflict, prompting hopes of de-escalation - impacts equities and FX markets.
  • Vistry warned margins will be lower in 2026 despite 2025 adjusted profit before tax broadly in line with guidance; the housebuilder's stock plunged over 17% - impacts housing and construction sector.
  • Several UK corporates released mixed results: Weir matched expectations and guided to modest growth and margin expansion; SIG posted higher underlying operating profit but flagged weather-related trading weakness - impacts mining equipment, building materials and industrials sectors.

British equities turned higher on Wednesday, recovering from early-week losses linked to weekend hostilities in the Middle East, as European bourses also ticked up on hopes tensions could abate.

Officials familiar with the matter told reporters that Iranian operatives directly contacted the CIA to discuss potential terms for ending the war, according to a report in The New York Times. The outreach was described as a notable diplomatic development, although the report said specific terms or proposals were not disclosed.

By 12:23 GMT the FTSE 100 had risen 0.6%. The pound traded 0.1% stronger against the dollar at 1.3373. In continental Europe, Germany's DAX climbed 1.4% while France's CAC 40 gained 0.8%.


Company news and movers in the UK

John Wood Group PLC shares fell 0.9% after the Financial Conduct Authority concluded its inquiry into historic financial reporting matters. The conclusion of the probe was cited by investors as the proximate trigger for the modest decline in the engineering services group's stock.

Vistry Group PLC experienced the session's most pronounced move, with shares plunging more than 17% after the housebuilder warned that margins would be lower in 2026. Management said it planned to use pricing incentives to drive Open Market sales, even as the company reported full-year 2025 adjusted profit before tax broadly in line with guidance. Vistry recorded adjusted profit before tax of 268.8 million for 2025, up from 263.5 million in 2024. Revenue for the year fell 4% to 4.15 billion from 4.33 billion a year earlier. Total completions were down 9% to 15,658 units from 17,225, partly offset by a 3% increase in average selling price.

Weir Group PLC shares declined more than 8% despite the mining equipment maker reporting full-year results that matched expectations. The Glasgow-based company posted adjusted operating profit of 518 million for 2025, in line with analyst consensus, and reported revenue of 2.57 billion, a 6% increase in constant currency. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 123.8p, also matching forecasts. For 2026 Weir guided to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and 50 basis points of margin expansion.

SIG shares fell even though the building materials distributor reported a 28% rise in full-year underlying operating profit. The company recorded underlying operating profit of 32.1 million for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025, up from 25.1 million a year earlier and within its guided range of 30-35 million. Revenue dipped 1% to 2.59 billion, with like-for-like sales flat year-on-year. SIG posted a statutory loss before tax of 61.7 million, versus a loss of 44.8 million in 2024, after taking 29.7 million in non-cash impairment charges and 9 million in restructuring costs. Management also noted that poor weather had dented early 2026 trading.

Beazley PLC reported full-year profit before tax of $1,146.5 million for 2025, down 19% from $1,423.5 million in 2024, as the specialty insurer operated in a softening insurance rating environment. The company nonetheless delivered its third consecutive year of profits above $1 billion. Insurance written premiums were $6,100.7 million, a 1% decline year-on-year from $6,164.1 million, and missed analyst expectations by 2.1%.

Quilter PLC posted record net inflows and a 6% increase in adjusted profit before tax to 207 million for 2025. The wealth manager announced a 100 million share buyback programme and introduced a new distribution policy. Total assets under management and administration rose 18% over the year to 141.2 billion, driven by net inflows of 8.7 billion and positive market performance. Core net inflows of 9.1 billion represented 8% of opening assets, up from 5% a year earlier.

Metro Bank Plc reported underlying profit before tax of 98 million for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025, the highest in the bank's 15-year history. The bank exceeded its cost reduction guidance and delivered a 22% increase in net interest income to 460 million, which helped lift underlying revenue 16% to 585 million. Net interest margin for the year reached 2.98%, up 107 basis points year-on-year, with an exit NIM of 3.17% in line with guidance. Underlying operating costs fell 7% year-on-year to 473 million, surpassing the bank's 4-5% reduction target.


Macro snapshot - services sector

Data from S&P Global showed the UK services sector expanded for a tenth consecutive month in February, although new order momentum weakened and job cuts persisted. The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 53.9 in February, marginally below January's five-month high of 54.0. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Survey respondents reported an upturn in business activity supported by gradually improving demand, and anecdotal comments suggested a turnaround in client confidence had released some pent up demand.


Wednesday's session illustrated the interplay between geopolitics and corporate newsflow on UK markets. While tentative diplomatic contacts reported in the Middle East supported a move away from early-week risk-off positioning, company-specific announcements continued to drive sizeable stock moves across construction, mining equipment, building materials, insurance, wealth management and banking.

Risks

  • Geopolitical uncertainty: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the limited detail around the reported outreach to the CIA create continued downside risk for market sentiment - affects equities, FX and commodity-sensitive sectors.
  • Profitability pressure at housebuilders: Vistry's warning of lower 2026 margins due to pricing incentives poses execution and margin risks for the residential construction sector.
  • Operational headwinds for distributors: SIG's sales were hit by poor weather, highlighting how short-term trading conditions can undermine profitability even when underlying operating profits improve - affects retail and building materials supply chains.

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