Economy March 2, 2026

UK equities slide as Middle East escalation lifts oil and spooks markets

Oil spikes nearly 8% after Iranian strikes; banks and travel stocks lead losses while energy and defence gain

By Nina Shah
UK equities slide as Middle East escalation lifts oil and spooks markets

UK stock markets fell on Monday amid a global risk-off move triggered by heightened conflict in the Middle East. Oil surged almost 8% after retaliatory Iranian attacks disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following a weekend bombing that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While energy and defence names advanced, domestically focused sectors such as banks and travel came under heavy pressure, and traders trimmed expectations for imminent Bank of England rate cuts.

Key Points

  • UK markets fell amid a global selloff after Iranian attacks disrupted shipping and oil surged almost 8%, following a weekend bombing that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
  • Energy and defence stocks outperformed - Shell rose about 2% and BAE Systems climbed 4.9% - while banks and travel names were among the biggest losers.
  • Traders reduced their expectations for near-term Bank of England rate cuts, pricing a 74% chance of a cut later this month, down from about 78% the prior week; government bond yields rose.

UK equity indexes weakened on Monday as a wave of risk aversion swept markets worldwide, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices after an escalation of military activity in the Middle East.

Oil climbed almost 8% after retaliatory Iranian attacks disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz following the weekend's bombing by Israel and the United States that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The jump in crude lifted shares of major British energy names and defence contractors, but pressure mounted on sectors more sensitive to domestic demand and travel.

Among large-cap stocks, British oil major Shell advanced about 2% while defence group BAE Systems rose 4.9%. In contrast, lenders and travel-related companies were among the hardest hit as investors reassessed the outlook for travel demand and for inflationary pressures that could affect monetary policy.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index was down 1% by 1131 GMT, having reached a record high in the previous session. The more domestically oriented FTSE 250 index fell 1.3% as investors rotated away from names exposed to the UK economy.

"If the issues persist, then the market will start to worry about new inflationary pressures and that could lower expectations for near-term interest rate cuts," said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

Major banking stocks suffered notable declines, with HSBC, Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group each sliding between 2.7% and 4.7% as the surge in oil rekindled concerns about a possible pickup in inflation. At the same time, British government bond yields rose as market participants pared back their bets on how quickly the Bank of England might reduce rates.

Traders were assigning a 74% probability that the BoE would cut interest rates later this month, down from around 78% a week earlier, indicating a modest shift in expectations for monetary easing.

Travel names were particularly weak after operator IAG said on Saturday it had cancelled flights to Tel Aviv and Bahrain until March 3; the stock fell 5.8%. The FTSE 350 travel & leisure index dropped 4.6%, with hotel groups and cruise operators among the larger decliners.

Even companies that reported positive underlying numbers did not escape the selloff. Senior, a supplier of components to aircraft manufacturers including Boeing and Airbus, fell 3.7% despite reporting upbeat results.

Separately, an AI-driven stock-picking service highlighted investor interest in assessing bank names. The service evaluates companies using over 100 financial metrics and cites past notable winners, including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%), while suggesting investors can check whether HSBC is featured in its strategies or if there are alternative opportunities in the same sector.

Overall, Monday's price action reflected a broader market response to heightened geopolitical risk: energy and defence stocks benefited from a spike in oil and security concerns, while banks, travel firms and other domestically exposed names were punished amid worries about inflation and economic disruption.

Risks

  • Persistent conflict in the Middle East could sustain higher oil prices and prompt renewed inflationary pressures, affecting inflation-sensitive sectors such as banks and consumer-facing businesses.
  • Travel and tourism companies face immediate operational disruption and demand risk, illustrated by IAG cancelling flights to Tel Aviv and Bahrain until March 3 and the FTSE 350 travel & leisure index falling 4.6%.
  • Market expectations for Bank of England policy easing may be pushed back, as shown by traders trimming the probability of a near-term rate cut, which could influence bond yields and domestically focused equities.

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