Economy February 26, 2026

Tech Earnings Temper Markets as U.S.-Iran Talks Keep Oil on Edge

Nvidia posts strong results but raises shareholder-return questions; Salesforce guidance disappoints; oil and gold track diplomatic developments

By Hana Yamamoto
Tech Earnings Temper Markets as U.S.-Iran Talks Keep Oil on Edge

U.S. stock futures slipped as investors digested high-profile quarterly reports from Nvidia and Salesforce. Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected profits and a revenue outlook above forecasts, yet questions about the timing and scale of shareholder returns muted investor reaction. Salesforce shares fell after management set a fiscal 2027 revenue range slightly below consensus, even as it raised a longer-term revenue goal tied to AI expansion. Meanwhile, oil held near seven-month highs and gold edged up as markets awaited a fresh round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures declined modestly as investors evaluated earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce and monitored geopolitical developments.
  • Nvidia beat quarterly estimates and issued a strong revenue guide, but investor concern about diminished buybacks and the pace of shareholder returns kept the stock subdued.
  • Salesforce's fiscal 2027 revenue range slightly missed consensus, prompting a selloff, even as the company raised its fiscal 2030 revenue target tied to AI investments.
  • Oil remained close to seven-month highs ahead of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva; Brent was $70.84/bbl and WTI $65.62/bbl, both up 0.2%. Gold inched up amid tariff worries and diplomatic uncertainty.

U.S. equity futures moved lower on Thursday as market participants weighed earnings from two of the market's most influential technology companies and tracked geopolitical events that could sway commodity prices.

By 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), futures tied to the main U.S. indices were in the red: the Dow futures contract was down 122 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had eased by 7 points, or about 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had slipped 27 points, or roughly 0.1%. The decline followed a session in which the main averages on Wall Street had risen, driven in part by renewed optimism about artificial intelligence.

Investor sentiment earlier in the week had turned more constructive on AI, producing a notable bounce in the Nasdaq. That swing reflected growing expectations that AI could generate broad-based benefits, a reversal from earlier concerns that widespread adoption of new AI models might leave some software firms exposed to disruption and pressure mega-cap technology companies' returns despite large data-center investments. Remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported risk appetite, as he suggested it is uncertain whether automation will produce significant job losses and noted AI could improve labor-market efficiency.


Nvidia: robust results but muted stock reaction

Nvidia reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analysts' projections and issued a current-quarter revenue forecast above consensus. Despite the top- and bottom-line beats, trading in the stock was subdued after hours.

Investor focus centered not on near-term demand but on how quickly Nvidia will channel the sizable cash it is generating back to shareholders. Industry observers pointed to the fourth quarter's cash generation tally of $35 billion and highlighted a marked reduction in the company's share buybacks: Nvidia returned 12% of that cash to investors in the latest quarter, down from 52% a year earlier. Those figures were cited by Yvette Schmitter, CEO of IT consulting firm Fusion Collective, who questioned the logic of cutting buybacks while describing sold-out Ampere chips as a "good signal for demand." Schmitter asked, "[W]hy is the company with record cash generation cutting buybacks by half?"

The same concern surfaced during Nvidia's post-earnings call. An analyst at UBS raised the prospect of returning some portion of the roughly $100 billion in cash the company was expected to generate over the coming year. In response, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress emphasized the company's intention to continue investing in the broader AI ecosystem. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang framed the company’s strategy around the belief that outputs from AI models will serve as the backbone for future computing.


Salesforce guidance disappoints, long-term AI bet remains

Shares of Salesforce fell in extended trading after management issued a fiscal 2027 revenue forecast that landed below the Street's expectations. The company projected full-year revenue in a range between $45.80 billion and $46.20 billion. At the midpoint of that range the figure missed the LSEG consensus midpoint of $46.06 billion.

The softer near-term outlook was presented against a backdrop of sustained investment into the company's AI initiatives. Salesforce has increased its fiscal 2030 revenue target to $63 billion from a previous $60 billion projection, signaling an expectation that the expansion of so-called agentic AI will lift growth over the longer term.

Management's combination of near-term conservatism and long-term bullishness on AI contributed to volatility in the stock at the start of 2026, with part of the market worried that new entrants and models could alter demand patterns for software-as-a-service offerings. Analysts at Vital Knowledge judged the results to be imperfect but broadly acceptable: they noted that while Salesforce's AI products are expanding from a small base, core business metrics including margins and growth are holding up and cash flow generation remains healthy. In their phrasing, the report "should cross the 'good enough' threshold."


Commodities: oil steady as diplomatic talks loom

Oil markets were largely steady on Thursday, with prices hovering close to seven-month highs as traders awaited the third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks scheduled later in the session. Brent futures rose 0.2% to $70.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures increased 0.2% to $65.62 a barrel.

U.S. envoys, including special representative Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, were set to meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva as Washington sought an agreement to address Tehran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump warned that "bad things" could happen if meaningful progress were not achieved, and noted that an extended conflict could disrupt crude supplies from Iran. The country is the third-largest crude producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a status markets weighed when assessing potential supply risks.


Gold nudges higher amid tariff concerns and diplomatic uncertainty

Safe-haven demand lifted gold prices modestly on Thursday as investors reacted to renewed trade-tariff concerns and awaited the start of the U.S.-Iran talks. Spot gold was last reported up 0.6% at $5,196.55 an ounce by 01:40 ET (06:40 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures were down 0.5% at $5,200.54 per ounce.

Market participants were also digesting the implications of recently announced U.S. tariffs that followed a U.S. Supreme Court ruling which quashed the President's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs. Those trade-policy developments, combined with geopolitical tensions and central-bank purchases, have supported bullion this year as investors continued to use gold for portfolio diversification and as a hedge.


Data and market-watch items

In addition to earnings and diplomatic developments, traders were preparing for U.S. economic data due later in the day, including weekly jobless claims. These releases are likely to be watched for signals about the labor market and the broader economic backdrop.

For market participants interested in valuation analysis, tools and models are being cited as ways to evaluate whether names like Nvidia are attractively priced. One such analytical offering references a Fair Value calculator that uses a mix of 17 industry valuation models to assess stocks, including Nvidia, though investors will weigh such outputs alongside the company's capital-allocation choices and long-term investment plans.


Takeaway

The trading session underscored a common thread across corporate and macro developments: investors are balancing enthusiasm for AI-driven growth against scrutiny of capital allocation and short-term revenue trajectories. Nvidia's strong operational performance failed to fully reassure shareholders about near-term returns of cash, while Salesforce's midterm revenue guidance highlighted the tension between managing near-term expectations and investing for longer-term AI-enabled expansion. Outside equities, commodities remained sensitive to geopolitical risk and policy developments, with oil and gold tracking diplomatic talks and tariff-related jitters.

Markets are likely to remain responsive to further corporate updates, official comments from company executives, and the outcome of the U.S.-Iran discussions, as well as incoming U.S. economic data that could recalibrate expectations around demand and risk assets.

Risks

  • Uncertainty around Nvidia's capital-allocation approach: reduced buybacks despite sizable cash generation could weigh on investor sentiment in the technology sector.
  • Weaker near-term revenue guidance from Salesforce signals potential demand softness in enterprise software amid economic uncertainty, affecting software and cloud sectors.
  • Geopolitical risk tied to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks may disrupt oil supplies from Iran, posing upside risk to crude prices and impacting energy markets.

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