Economy March 19, 2026

Swiss National Bank holds rates at zero as Middle East conflict clouds inflation outlook

Policy rate unchanged at 0% amid franc surge and higher oil prices; SNB signals greater willingness to intervene in FX markets

By Hana Yamamoto
Swiss National Bank holds rates at zero as Middle East conflict clouds inflation outlook

The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate at 0% on March 19, citing a sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc tied to the conflict in the Middle East and a concurrent rise in global oil prices that has made the inflation outlook less clear. The SNB said it has increased its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to prevent a rapid and excessive franc appreciation that could threaten domestic price stability. The move followed a day in which other major central banks also kept policy unchanged.

Key Points

  • SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, the lowest among major central banks - impacts currency markets and interest-rate sensitive sectors such as banking and export-oriented industries.
  • The franc's surge, linked to the Middle East conflict, and a spike in global oil prices have complicated the inflation outlook - relevant to consumer goods, energy, and transport sectors.
  • SNB signalled an increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to prevent rapid and excessive appreciation that could endanger price stability - directly affects foreign exchange and financial markets.

ZURICH, March 19 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0% on Thursday, maintaining the benchmark at the lowest level among major central banks. The decision came as the Swiss franc strengthened sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a related jump in global oil prices that has muddied the outlook for inflation.

The pause in policy was anticipated by a wide majority of analysts polled. The SNB pointed explicitly to the recent conflict when explaining its stance and the steps it is prepared to take in markets. In a statement the bank said: "Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased."

The central bank added: "The SNB thereby counters a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland." That language underscores the SNB's focus on the exchange rate channel as a driver of domestic price pressures at a time when energy-driven inflation risks have risen.

Markets reacted briefly after the announcement. The franc initially softened following the decision, but then climbed back to trade slightly firmer against both the euro and the U.S. dollar, quoted at 0.9082 francs per euro and 0.793 francs per dollar, respectively.

The SNB's move came on a day of multiple central bank updates in which other major policymakers also opted to keep rates unchanged, including the U.S. Federal Reserve the day before. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Sweden's central bank were due to deliver their latest assessments on Thursday, with markets positioned for no change to their policy rates.

Separately, commentary included promotion of data and analytics tools for investors, noting that institutional-grade information combined with AI-driven insights can help inform investment decisions, but without guaranteeing outcomes.

The SNB's statement and the market response reflect the interaction of exchange rate moves and energy price shocks in shaping monetary policy considerations when geopolitical events add a layer of uncertainty.

Risks

  • A rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc could undermine price stability in Switzerland - risk to exporters and tourism-related industries.
  • Higher global oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict may blur inflation trends and complicate central bank policymaking - risk to energy-intensive sectors and consumer prices.
  • Elevated uncertainty from the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran complicates the policy outlook for multiple central banks - risk to financial market volatility and cross-border capital flows.

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