Economy June 4, 2026 06:15 AM

Russia Confirms 2026 Oil Output Has Fallen, Blames Unscheduled Refinery Work

Deputy PM says maintenance at several refineries has reduced production since the start of the year; export routes running at full tilt

By Priya Menon

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged a drop in Russian oil production since the beginning of 2026, attributing the decline to unscheduled maintenance at a number of refineries. Novak said export infrastructure is being used to its full capacity and expects production to recover as refineries resume normal operations. The International Energy Agency has reported a year-on-year April decline of about 460,000 barrels per day to roughly 8.8 million bpd. Russia has not publicly released official production figures since April 2023.

Russia Confirms 2026 Oil Output Has Fallen, Blames Unscheduled Refinery Work

Key Points

  • Russian oil production has decreased since the start of 2026, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who linked the decline to unscheduled maintenance at several refineries - impacts the oil and energy sector.
  • Russia has not released official production figures since April 2023, leaving external agencies like the IEA to provide estimates; this affects market transparency and crude oil traders.
  • Novak said export infrastructure is being used to capacity and predicted production would recover once refineries complete maintenance; this has implications for shipping and export logistics.

Russian oil output has fallen since the start of 2026, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday, pointing to unscheduled maintenance at several refineries as the reason for the decline.

The admission is notable because it is the first time a senior Russian official has publicly confirmed a reduction in output this year. Russia - identified as the world's third-largest oil producer - has not published official oil production figures since April 2023, a move that took place just over a year after the start of its war with Ukraine.

Novak, speaking to reporters at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, did not provide further detail about what prompted the unplanned maintenance. He acknowledged, however, that a number of refineries are undergoing repairs or maintenance work that was not scheduled.

"Current production is indeed somewhat lower than it was at the beginning of the year," Novak said. "This is due to the fact that a number of our oil refineries are currently undergoing unscheduled maintenance."

The deputy prime minister noted that Russia is utilising its export infrastructure to its maximum capacity as the maintenance work continues. He said production will rise again and return to earlier levels once refinery operations are fully restored.

Novak did not elaborate on the causes behind the maintenance, but the source material notes that Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian refineries in recent months. The statement in itself did not attribute the maintenance directly to those attacks.

Separately, the International Energy Agency reported a year-on-year drop in Russia's crude oil production in April, a decline of 460,000 barrels per day to about 8.8 million barrels per day. The IEA figure provides a numerical context to the decline Novak described, though Russia itself has not resumed public reporting of official production data.

On broader market cooperation, Novak also defended the role of OPEC+ in stabilising global oil markets despite the United Arab Emirates' departure from the alliance. "In any case, OPEC and our agreements, which have proven their effectiveness, help smooth fluctuations and volatility in global markets," he said.


Context and takeaways

  • There has been an acknowledged reduction in Russian oil production since the start of 2026, attributed by the government to unscheduled refinery maintenance.
  • Russia's official public reporting of oil output has been suspended since April 2023.
  • International monitoring - exemplified by the IEA's April estimate - shows a significant year-on-year decrease in crude oil output.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over the causes and duration of unscheduled refinery maintenance - could prolong disruptions in refining and crude markets.
  • Limited official production data from Russia since April 2023 increases reliance on external estimates, raising the risk of information gaps for market participants and policymakers.
  • Potential continued attacks on refinery infrastructure, referenced by increased attacks linked to Ukraine, pose a risk to refinery operations and regional energy supply stability.

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