Economy February 27, 2026

Risk-off Mood Deepens as Tech Valuations and Geopolitics Weigh on Markets

Nvidia’s strong results fail to satisfy frothy sector; safe-haven assets rise amid tensions from Iran to Afghanistan

By Caleb Monroe
Risk-off Mood Deepens as Tech Valuations and Geopolitics Weigh on Markets

A risk-averse tone gripped global markets as lofty technology valuations collided with a series of geopolitical flashpoints. Nvidia posted results that, while impressive on the surface, fell short of the expectations baked into industry valuations. Traditional havens such as the Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries strengthened, crude oil ticked higher, and equity futures showed a mixed picture heading into the European session. Diplomatic signals from an Omani mediator on U.S.-Iran talks were cautiously upbeat, but gaps remain. Elsewhere, violence erupted between Pakistan and Afghanistan, China criticised Philippine patrols, and the U.S. military downed a U.S.-government drone over Texas with lasers. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party suffered a local setback in Greater Manchester.

Key Points

  • Technology sector valuations set a risk-off tone after Nvidia’s results failed to meet expectations priced into the sector - impacts technology and equity markets.
  • Traditional safe-havens - the Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries - strengthened, while crude oil edged higher - impacts FX, fixed income, and energy markets.
  • Multiple geopolitical flashpoints, including tensions involving Iran, Pakistan-Afghanistan, China-Philippine patrols, and a U.S. military drone incident, added to market uncertainty - impacts defence, geopolitics-sensitive sectors, and risk sentiment.

Markets opened under pressure as investors reassessed technology sector valuations and digested a string of geopolitical developments. The risk-off dynamic, already present earlier in the week, intensified after Nvidia - often viewed as the poster child of the artificial intelligence surge - posted results that many investors judged insufficient for a sector priced for near-perfection.

Against that backdrop, classic safe-haven assets gained ground. The Japanese yen strengthened and U.S. Treasury prices rose, while crude oil edged up modestly.

Diplomatic activity around Iran provided a mixed backdrop. In the wake of a U.S. President Donald Trump threat of strikes against Iran, an Omani official serving as mediator for the nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran delivered an optimistic account of the latest round of talks, but the two sides remain widely separated on key issues.

Other regional tensions added to market unease. Pakistan said its patience with the Taliban administration in Afghanistan had run out, reporting overnight bombings of Taliban government targets and declarations of "open war." Separately, China’s military accused the Philippines of "disrupting" regional peace and stability by organising joint patrols with countries from outside the area.

In an unusual domestic security episode, the U.S. military used laser systems to shoot down a drone over Texas that had been deployed by the U.S. government, highlighting operational developments in counter-drone capabilities.

Political developments in the U.K. also weighed on sentiment. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered a defeat in an electoral contest in Greater Manchester, an area his Labour Party had long dominated.

Market indicators pointed to a mixed start in European trading:

  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 0.03% at 6,172
  • German DAX futures were flat at 25,314
  • FTSE futures were up 0.21% at 10,856.5
  • U.S. S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.24% at 6,903.3

Key scheduled releases and events that could move markets included several monthly and quarterly data points and a central bank speech. They are likely to draw investor attention through the day:

  • United States - Producer Price Index (PPI) for January; Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February
  • France - Consumer spending for January; producer prices for January; Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February; fourth-quarter GDP
  • Germany - Unemployment for February; import prices for January; CPI for February
  • Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill is scheduled to speak
  • Canada - Fourth-quarter GDP

Investment tool note

For investors weighing Nvidia, a proprietary tool called ProPicks AI evaluates the company alongside thousands of others monthly using more than 100 financial metrics. The offering uses machine learning to seek stock ideas by assessing fundamentals, momentum, and valuation, without regard for popularity. The product notes past winners it highlighted, including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%), and asks whether Nvidia features in any current ProPicks AI strategies or if there are preferable opportunities in the same sector.

This combination of stretched tech valuations and growing geopolitical friction has produced a cautious trading environment in which safe havens outperformed and equity indices showed mixed signals.

Risks

  • Persistent valuation pressures in the technology sector could continue to weigh on equity markets if results from large-cap tech firms fall short of expectations - affects technology and broader equity indices.
  • Ongoing diplomatic gaps in U.S.-Iran talks and regional escalations, such as Pakistan’s actions in Afghanistan and China’s objections to Philippine patrols, could amplify risk aversion - affects energy prices and safe-haven flows.
  • Domestic political surprises, exemplified by Labour’s local defeat in Greater Manchester, and operational security incidents like the U.S. military shooting down a government drone, inject additional uncertainty into market sentiment - affects political-risk sensitive assets and defence sector perceptions.

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