Energy equities have moved in markedly different directions since the Iran conflict began, with winners clustered among refiners and LNG-linked companies and several oilfield services and infrastructure names lagging, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs.
The geopolitical disturbance has pushed oil prices up and interrupted shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors and market participants to re-evaluate supply risks and sector positioning. That reassessment has favored companies benefitting from stronger refining margins, rising global gas prices and heightened demand for North American drilling services.
Winners: refiners, LNG exporters and select producers
Goldman Sachs singled out a group of outperformers. Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC), Ovintiv Inc (NYSE:OVV), Venture Global Inc (NYSE:VG), Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (NASDAQ:PTEN), Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK), and MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP) have posted stronger returns since the conflict started.
Refiners, in particular, have benefited from tighter fuel availability and wider crack spreads as supply disruptions in the Middle East pushed fuel prices higher. Marathon Petroleum’s stock performance is tied to its exposure to improving refining margins and sustained fuel demand.
Upstream producers have also seen gains. Ovintiv has outperformed peers in the exploration and production space, a result Goldman Sachs attributes to portfolio restructuring and a concentrated emphasis on high-quality shale assets in North America.
For LNG exporters, the price reaction in global gas markets has been a decisive factor. Venture Global has stood out among its peers because its exposure to uncontracted LNG capacity allows the company to capture upside when international gas prices climb amid supply-route disruptions.
Laggers: services and infrastructure under pressure
Conversely, Goldman Sachs identified a set of relative underperformers. The names called out include Viper Energy Inc (NASDAQ:VNOM), Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Waterbridge Infrastructure LLC (NYSE:WBI), LandBridge Co LLC (NYSE:LB), NRG Energy Inc (NYSE:NRG), Slb NV (NYSE:SLB), and Acuity.
Exxon Mobil’s weaker relative performance reflects investor concern about the company’s exposure to Middle East supply risks. SLB has been pressured by disruptions to offshore activity in the Persian Gulf, where rigs were temporarily demanned amid security worries.
Infrastructure and services firms tied to global activity levels have also faced headwinds. During the conflict, companies that provide project and field services have seen delays and more cautious capital-expenditure planning, reducing near-term demand for certain equipment and services.
As the market continues to digest geopolitical developments, these sectoral divergences illustrate how shifts in supply risk and shipping flows can quickly reconfigure relative performance within the energy complex.