The route for importers to recover import taxes paid under the tariffs imposed by President Trump is expected to be protracted and complicated, according to analysts at Raymond James.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled that the president's reliance on a 1977 emergency powers statute to implement sweeping duties on a number of trading partners was unlawful. That decision left open immediate questions about whether companies that paid those levies could obtain refunds and how such recoveries would be administered.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has said it will stop collecting the tariffs the court struck down as of 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday. The agency did not explain why tariffs continued to be collected at ports of entry in the days after the ruling, nor did it provide detail on whether importers will be refunded the sums they already remitted.
In guidance to shippers, CBP clarified that the suspension of collection applies only to the duties invalidated by the Supreme Court's decision. The agency made clear that other tariffs imposed under different authorities - including national security and unfair trade practices statutes - will not be affected by the halt.
Analysts at Raymond James, including Ellen Ehrnrooth and Ed Mills, noted in a client note that firms seeking repayment of tariffs are unlikely to receive automatic refunds. Instead, they will have to pursue remedies by filing individual suits or joining class action litigation to press for reimbursement.
Over the weekend, the president announced global tariffs of 15% after the Supreme Court's ruling struck down his use of emergency powers to impose broad levies on several major trading partners, including the EU. An earlier White House communication had indicated the tariffs would be set at 10% as of Tuesday, but the administration subsequently raised that figure to 15%.
The legal and policy process leaves additional layers of uncertainty. Congress - whose constitutionally granted trade authority was central to the Supreme Court's reasoning - could enact legislation to extend the president's across-the-board 15% tariffs after they are set to legally expire in 150 days.
Analysts at ING warned that the president could alternatively allow the levy to expire, declare a new emergency, and thereby restart the 150-day period, effectively creating what ING called a "de facto perpetual tariff instrument."
Trade and legal observers, as reflected in the analysis from Raymond James and other market participants, will be watching both litigation developments and policy moves in Washington closely to gauge how quickly and completely any owed refunds might be returned to importers and how the broader tariff regime evolves.
Separately, for market participants tracking tariff developments, some industry tools offer institutional-grade data and AI-powered analysis to help identify investment opportunities in the evolving environment, though such services do not guarantee outcomes.
Key takeaways:
- Supreme Court found the use of a 1977 emergency powers law to impose sweeping tariffs unlawful.
- CBP will stop collecting the struck-down tariffs as of 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday but has not specified refund mechanics.
- Firms seeking refunds will likely need to bring individual lawsuits or join class actions, rather than receiving automatic reimbursement.