A new survey conducted by Quaest for brokerage Genial shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro level at 41% each in a simulated second-round contest for Brazil's presidential election in October.
The result marks a change from a February poll in which Lula led a potential runoff with 43% against the senator's 38%. Quaest's latest work indicates parity between the two figures when the contest is pared to a head-to-head matchup.
When the poll analyzed first-round dynamics across seven different simulated lineups of challengers, Lula's support ranged from 36% to 39% depending on the opponent set. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's projected first-round support varied from 30% to 35% in those same scenarios.
The broader market community has paid close attention to successive polls after the imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly backed his son Flavio in December. Quaest's findings align with other recent surveys from AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Datafolha that also showed the right-wing senator drawing level with the incumbent leftist president as Flavio Bolsonaro's profile rose.
Quaest's questionnaire reached 2,004 people during a field period running from March 6 to March 9. The organization reports a margin of error of two percentage points, meaning reported support levels could shift within that band in either direction.
The poll offers a snapshot of voter preferences at a specific moment in time, producing both a tied second-round projection and a set of varying first-round outcomes across multiple simulated matchups. Observers in financial markets have been monitoring these developments closely, reflecting the sensitivity of investors and market participants to shifts in electoral dynamics.
Methodology note: The figures and ranges cited above come directly from the Quaest poll commissioned by Genial and reflect the sample and field dates described. The margin of error reported is two percentage points.