Economy February 13, 2026

President Says Indonesia Poised to Surpass Growth Target as Social Programs Bolster Consumption

Prabowo credits flagship initiatives, while senior minister points to a 5.6% growth potential backed by Danantara projects and government investment

By Priya Menon
President Says Indonesia Poised to Surpass Growth Target as Social Programs Bolster Consumption

President Prabowo Subianto told an international economic forum that Indonesia's growth is genuine and forecast to exceed the government's target this year, citing his administration's free meals programme and local development initiatives as drivers of consumption and job creation. Senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto said the economy could expand by 5.6% this year, above the 5.4% official goal, and said market sentiment has improved following a recent rebound.

Key Points

  • President says economic growth is real and will surpass the government's target this year; free meals and local development programmes are cited as supporting consumption and jobs - impacts: consumption, agriculture, fisheries.
  • Senior economic minister forecasts potential growth of 5.6% this year, above the 5.4% official target, attributing upside to projects by Danantara Indonesia and government initiatives - impacts: public investment and markets.
  • Officials said market sentiment has improved following a recent rebound, as they respond to prior market concerns - impacts: financial markets and investor confidence.

Indonesia's president told attendees at an international economic forum that the country's economic expansion is "real" and will surpass the official growth target this year, attributing part of the improvement to social and local development programmes launched by his administration.

Speaking after a period of market unease prompted by a warning from index provider MSCI concerning stock market transparency and a downgrade in outlook on Indonesia's bonds by Moody's, the president highlighted several flagship efforts he says are supporting domestic demand.

At the forum, which drew representatives from international agencies, the president described the administration's free meals initiative alongside programmes to develop village cooperatives and fishing villages as elements that will strengthen the economy. He said the free meals scheme has generated employment and increased farmers' incomes, and noted the programme reached more than 60 million recipients.

The president acknowledged a limited number of food poisoning incidents linked to the scheme but maintained it was successful. He recounted meetings with industry leaders who, he said, reported improved consumption as a result of the programme: "I met with industry leaders... they told me that free meals have improved consumption," he said. He added a point about the economic approach, saying: "We are not running a handout economy."

Also at the event, senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto offered an outlook on growth, saying the economy has the potential to expand by 5.6% this year, which would exceed the official target of 5.4%. He linked that upside to projects initiated by the sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia as well as government-backed projects.

Airlangga additionally said market sentiment has brightened, referencing a rebound this week as evidence of improved investor mood. The remarks from both officials came in a forum setting where international agencies were present and where recent scrutiny from market watchdogs and rating agencies has drawn attention to Indonesia's financial and market governance.

The discussion at the forum therefore combined policy defense and forward-looking growth projections, with the administration pointing to targeted social programmes and state-led investment projects as contributors to consumption and broader economic momentum.

Risks

  • Recent market scrutiny from MSCI over stock market transparency poses a risk to investor confidence and equities.
  • Moody's cut in Indonesia's bond rating outlook presents uncertainty for sovereign fixed income and borrowing costs.
  • A small number of food poisoning cases tied to the free meals programme could create reputational or operational risks for social initiatives affecting consumption.

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