Indonesian policy moves intended to restore market stability have instead amplified investor skepticism, leaving the country vulnerable on multiple financial fronts. Since President Prabowo Subianto named his nephew as deputy governor of the central bank last month, the rupiah has been held close to record lows and foreigners have shown signs of retreat. Promises of reform after Moody's downgraded the sovereign outlook and after an index provider flagged problems with equities trading have not calmed markets.
The main stock index has staged some recovery from recent troughs but remains down more than 3% in 2026, the weakest performing benchmark in the region. At the same time, demand at a recent government debt auction was soft, underscoring the stakes: failure to win broader investor support would require higher yields to attract capital for an expansive spend-to-grow agenda that is already testing public finances.
Policy reactions and market interpretation
Short, sharp policy moves have made market participants uneasy about the predictability of the regulatory environment. "Ad-hoc policy doesn’t protect the market, it makes the market impossible to price," said Fauzan Luthsa, an advisor at Ormit Kelola Nusantara in Jakarta. He warned that a reactive, constantly changing policy pattern is the main risk.
Foreign investors had concerns about Prabowo before he took office in 2024, given his program to expand state-led spending on initiatives from school lunches to housing. Those reservations have hardened as the administration has faced market pressure; the rupiah has fallen about 7% since the election.
After an index provider warned that Indonesia risked a downgrade to frontier status, five senior exchange and regulatory officials resigned in a single afternoon last month. Temporary successors quickly proposed changes to free float and stock ownership disclosure rules aimed at restoring the index provider's confidence. Those measures have been welcomed by state-backed investors such as Danantara and several large pension funds, but the speed and manner of the proposals - along with sudden fines imposed on a few alleged stock manipulators - have also sparked concern over the potential for future abrupt changes and doubts about their effectiveness.
Growth targets versus the need for predictability
The administration has rejected external criticism that its policy approach is unpredictable, and instead reiterated an ambition to raise annual economic growth from roughly 5% to 8% by 2029. Economists and market watchers say that markets do not seek pro-growth policies in the short term so much as predictability so that risks can be quantified.
"Markets are not asking for pro-growth policies in the short term, what they need is predictability so risks can be calculated," said Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, head of the Center for Macroeconomics and Finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance in Indonesia. He added that what markets want to see are concrete track records rather than policy pledges: "Proof points of recovery are not policy statements, but track record: Two to three quarters with no regulatory surprises."
Bond yields, the rupiah and the cost of capital
Analysts say the currency and sovereign yields will be key measures of whether the government can rebuild credibility. The yield on the 10-year Indonesian government bond is 6.458%, having risen 34 basis points so far this year. The rupiah is trading at 16,825 per dollar, underperforming regional peers and approaching a threshold that market participants say would mark a new phase of vulnerability if it moved past 17,000.
"If foreign investors sell (sovereign debt) aggressively and yields jump, pressure on the rupiah will deepen," said Muhammad Wafi, head of research at Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia. He noted that equities are a derivative of macro stability and warned that turbulence in the bond market would likely transmit into the stock market: "If the bond market becomes turbulent, the stock market will certainly come under deeper pressure."
Policy decisions viewed as prioritising fiscal financing - such as large new spending programmes, tolerating higher inflation, or relying on the central bank to smooth fiscal operations - could shift perceptions and raise risk premiums, according to Alessia Berardi, head of global macroeconomics at Amundi Investment Institute. "What matters most for markets is observable behaviour: the communications, policy framework, and concrete actions," she said. "If the leadership signals policies that focus on fiscal financing, tolerate higher inflation, or frequently uses the central bank to smooth fiscal operations, then perceptions will harden and risk premiums will rise."
Investor sentiment and the path forward
Some observers caution that a modest rise in yields is not necessarily a crisis and could even draw capital. Nevertheless, foreign investment flows are turning negative and investors increasingly view recent government choices as increasing risk.
"I do feel like each of these steps is a little nick, a little cut that could add up into something bigger," said James Athey, a fixed income fund manager at Marlborough, who has postponed plans to add to Indonesia exposure. "What we’ve had recently I think is going to keep me sidelined for a bit longer," he said. "Because it’s a hard one to price."
Market participants will be watching subsequent debt auctions, currency moves, and whether the authorities can produce several quarters free of regulatory surprises to rebuild confidence. Absent demonstrable stability, the challenge for Indonesia will be to finance an ambitious agenda without having to accept significantly higher borrowing costs.