Economy February 11, 2026

Poland’s Business Climate Slips Below Neutral in February as Sales and Orders Weaken

Monthly index falls to 98.0 as sales, new orders, capacity and investment readings drop below the 100-point threshold

By Caleb Monroe
Poland’s Business Climate Slips Below Neutral in February as Sales and Orders Weaken

Poland's Monthly Business Climate Index (MIK) declined to 98.0 in February, moving below the neutral 100 mark after four months above that level. The Polish Economic Institute attributed the drop to weaker sales, new orders, production capacity and investment, while labour market indicators remained stable and large firms showed early signs of investment recovery.

Key Points

  • Poland's Monthly Business Climate Index (MIK) dropped to 98.0 in February, below the neutral 100-point threshold after four months above neutral.
  • Sales, new orders, production capacity and investment all fell below neutral, leading to a deterioration in those areas; large firms remained above neutral at 105.2.
  • Labour market indicators remain stable with firms not cutting hiring or wage-increase plans despite rising labour costs; construction recorded the weakest sectoral reading.

Poland's Monthly Business Climate Index (MIK) fell to 98.0 in February, slipping under the neutral 100-point threshold following a four-month stretch above that level, the Polish Economic Institute reported on Wednesday.

The institute said the downturn was led by weaker readings for sales, new orders, production capacity and investment - all of which registered below the neutral mark. In practical terms, that means a larger share of companies reported deterioration rather than improvement across these measures.

Month-on-month, values for sales, new orders and financial liquidity declined. The institute pointed to a high base effect after a very strong sales period at the end of 2025 and to seasonal shifts in consumer spending as explanations for part of the month-on-month drop. The report also cited ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as a continuing negative influence on business sentiment.

On the labour front, the institute noted stability. "At the same time, the labour market remains stable - firms are not curbing hiring or wage-increase plans despite rising labour costs," said Urszula Klosiewicz-Gorecka, senior analyst at the institute. She added that companies generally assess financial liquidity positively and that there are the first signs of a rebound in investment, particularly among large enterprises.

When broken down by company size, large enterprises were the only segment to remain above the neutral threshold, recording a reading of 105.2. The institute linked that stronger performance to better liquidity and plans among large firms to raise employment and wages.

Medium-sized firms experienced the most pronounced weakening, according to the report. The institute said these companies faced broad declines in sales and new orders, which translated into visible excess production capacity. Smaller businesses - including small and micro firms - also stayed below neutral, constrained by weak sales, fewer orders and subdued investment activity.

Across industry sectors, sentiment remained below the neutral level, with construction posting the weakest reading. The institute attributed construction's low score to falling sales and orders combined with limited investment in the sector.


The Polish Economic Institute's February MIK highlights a mixed picture: weakening demand and investment readings overall, stability in employment intentions, and divergent performance by firm size, with large companies showing the earliest signs of recovery in investment plans.

Risks

  • Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on business sentiment across firms and sectors - this impacts overall confidence and could affect investment and sales.
  • A high base effect from strong late-2025 sales and seasonal changes in consumer spending contributed to month-on-month declines in sales and orders - retail and consumer-facing sectors are affected.
  • Medium-sized firms are facing excess capacity due to broad declines in sales and new orders, increasing downside risk for manufacturing and production-oriented sectors.

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