Economy March 12, 2026

Oil Surges Past $100 as Markets Reel; Adobe and Shell Set to Report Results

Heightened strikes near the Strait of Hormuz push crude higher, pressuring equities and prompting scrutiny of tech earnings and major energy cash flows

By Marcus Reed
Oil Surges Past $100 as Markets Reel; Adobe and Shell Set to Report Results

Global oil benchmarks climbed back above key psychological levels as attacks on vessels and facilities near a strategic waterway south of Iran intensified supply concerns. U.S. equity futures slid, while gold steadied amid inflation worries tied to higher energy costs. Adobe prepares to report quarterly results and oil major Shell released annual figures, underscoring how energy volatility is rippling through markets and corporate reporting.

Key Points

  • Oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel amid attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, heightening supply disruption concerns and contributing to volatility across markets.
  • U.S. futures fell with the Dow futures down 218 points, S&P 500 futures off 25 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipping 93 points, reflecting investor apprehension about the economic impact of higher energy costs.
  • Adobe's upcoming earnings release and Shell's 2025 results highlight how both technology and energy companies are being scrutinized for their responses to AI-driven disruption and fluctuating commodity conditions, respectively.

Markets at a glance

U.S. equity futures were trading lower on Thursday as crude prices pushed above the $100-a-barrel threshold, reviving investor concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies amid escalating hostilities in and around Iran. The move in oil came despite coordinated releases from strategic reserves intended to ease price pressures. The swings in energy prices have added to broader unease that has already weighed on some benchmark indexes and prompted careful attention to upcoming corporate earnings from both technology and energy sectors.

1. Futures slip as oil spikes

By 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), futures contracts tied to major U.S. indexes showed declines: the Dow futures were down 218 points, roughly 0.5%, the S&P 500 futures were lower by 25 points, about 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had eased by 93 points, or 0.4%. The intraday weakness followed a sharp uptick in crude, a development that traders said could reverberate through consumer and corporate cost structures.

Wednesday's session had left the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average at its weakest closing level so far this year, reflecting mounting concern that the energy shock could weigh on an array of U.S. businesses and household budgets. Despite that pullback, the S&P 500 finished only marginally in negative territory, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a slight gain. Investor sentiment received a partial lift from earnings at Oracle, which delivered results ahead of expectations and issued an upbeat forecast for AI-related data center demand.

U.S. consumer price data for February arrived in line with expectations, but the sudden jump in energy costs has darkened the outlook for inflation in the near term. Market participants are now factoring the possible inflationary consequences of higher crude into their assessments of monetary policy and corporate margins. Meanwhile, the sustained focus on the expanding U.S.-Israeli military operations involving Iran has not precluded other underlying market worries, including strains in the private-credit sector, lingering uncertainty over tariff policy direction, and questions about the ultimate returns from large-scale AI investments.

2. Oil reclaims the $100 mark

Crude prices briefly returned above $100 a barrel on the renewed threat to oil flows stemming from attacks near a key shipping lane south of Iran. At 04:05 ET, Brent futures, the global benchmark, had climbed 4.3% to $95.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 3.8% at $90.54 per barrel. Prices have shown extreme volatility in recent days, highlighting how sensitive markets remain to each development in the unfolding regional conflict.

Earlier in the week, Brent had at one point surged to nearly $120 a barrel, marking its highest levels since 2022. A primary concern for energy traders has centered on potential stoppages in the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway south of Iran that handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, much of which is destined for Asia and Europe. The threat of strikes has brought tanker traffic to a near standstill as operators and insurers balk at the risk to crews and cargo. The difficulty in securing insurance for transits has further limited crossings.

The security picture has deteriorated even as governments and international agencies moved to augment available supplies. Iran has intensified its assault activity, the U.S. Navy has declined to provide escorts for commercial ships through the strait, and at least six vessels were reported hit over a single 24-hour stretch. Authorities in Bahrain additionally reported attacks on the country's oil facilities. In an effort to dampen market disruption, the International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever coordinated release from emergency reserves, while the U.S. Energy Department said it would release 172 million barrels from its strategic reserves.

3. Gold steadies amid inflation concerns

Precious metal prices stabilized after sliding in Asian trade, with spot gold inching up 0.1% to $5,178.65 an ounce by 04:54 ET and gold futures rising 0.1% to $5,184.75 an ounce. Bullion has been trading in a roughly $5,000 to $5,200 range as the market balances traditional safe-haven demand against the inflationary implications of higher energy costs.

Some market observers worry that a sustained oil shock could push inflation higher, potentially forcing central banks such as the Federal Reserve to reconsider plans for near-term interest rate reductions. A firmer U.S. dollar - which has been supported by rising yields and expectations for tighter policy - can weigh on gold by making the metal more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The dollar index had ticked up roughly 0.2%, approaching a two-month high, which added downward pressure on bullion's allure despite the geopolitical premium in crude.

4. Adobe's results in focus

Adobe is scheduled to release quarterly results after Thursday's market close, drawing attention to how the software company that makes Photoshop is navigating a period of heightened scrutiny around artificial intelligence's potential disruption to the software-as-a-service landscape. What was once broadly viewed as an industry tailwind from AI is presenting fresh anxieties, as the arrival of new tools and agent plug-ins has prompted questions about how customer demand and product differentiation will evolve.

Investors have been particularly concerned that a variety of emerging AI capabilities - including plug-ins to conversational agents that can rapidly parse legal documents - could reshape demand across businesses that rely on data analytics, marketing, and content creation. The sector-specific S&P 500 Information Technology index, which includes Adobe as a component, has fallen by more than 3% year-to-date, a marked reversal from the prior year when the index recorded a total return of 24% for 2025.

Adobe's own share price has reflected this uncertainty, sliding by more than 18% year-to-date. In response to the shifting competitive landscape, Adobe has pursued an active AI strategy, integrating features from tools such as Firefly and Adobe Express into its Creative Cloud to help users generate images and videos more efficiently. Company management has projected full-year fiscal 2026 revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion, with earnings per share expected in a range of $23.30 to $23.50 - forecasts that the company says top Wall Street expectations.

5. Shell's 2025 results and LNG supply disruption

Oil major Shell posted adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion for 2025, down from $23.7 billion in 2024. Cash flow from operating activities fell to $42.9 billion from $54.7 billion the prior year, while free cash flow declined to $26.1 billion compared with $39.5 billion in 2024. Despite the drop in underlying cash generation, Shell maintained meaningful shareholder distributions, returning roughly $22.4 billion to investors through $8.5 billion in dividends and $13.9 billion in share buybacks. Those payouts represented about 52% of cash flow from operations, landing near the top end of the company’s stated 40% to 50% target range.

The results were released amid reports that Shell had declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas cargoes it purchases from QatarEnergy and sells to customers globally after Qatar halted production at a 77 million-tonne-per-year LNG facility and declared force majeure on shipments. Industry estimates provided in reporting suggest Shell takes about 6.8 million tonnes per annum of Qatari LNG under supply arrangements, while TotalEnergies is estimated to take around 5.2 million tonnes per annum.

What this means for markets

The confluence of renewed energy-price volatility, precious-metals reactions, and corporate results from both technology and energy heavyweights underscores a period of elevated cross-market risks. Sharp moves in crude have the potential to feed into inflation metrics, influence central bank decisions on interest rates, and alter profit outlooks for companies whose margins are sensitive to energy costs. At the same time, software firms face an evolving landscape as AI functionality becomes more widely embedded in products and workflows, prompting investors to reassess growth trajectories and valuations.


This report synthesizes market moves, commodity price action, and corporate updates based on current public disclosures and market data.

Risks

  • Escalating attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz risk further disrupting oil and LNG flows, which could push energy prices higher and increase inflationary pressure - affecting consumer spending and corporate margins, particularly in energy-intensive industries.
  • Deterioration in shipping security and reluctance of insurers to underwrite voyages through high-risk waters may prolong supply-chain strains for oil and gas shipments, impacting energy producers, refiners, and exporters.
  • Broader market uncertainty driven by private-credit strains, tariff-policy ambiguity, and doubts about returns on large AI investments could compound equity market sensitivity, especially in technology and financial sectors.

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