Economy February 26, 2026

Nvidia's strong quarter soothes markets but fails to exceed sky-high expectations

Solid results lift short-term sentiment even as AI optimism cools; geopolitical and central bank signals add volatility

By Avery Klein
Nvidia's strong quarter soothes markets but fails to exceed sky-high expectations

Nvidia reported January-quarter sales that topped analyst forecasts and issued a current-quarter revenue outlook above market estimates. The beat, while solid, fell short of the outsized gains some investors expected after a long string of revenue surprises. The report eased immediate worries about the cost of AI-driven disruption, supporting gains in Asian equities, but U.S. and European futures slipped. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and renewed debate about Bank of Japan policy kept oil and currency markets on edge.

Key Points

  • Nvidia reported January-quarter sales above analyst expectations and issued a current-quarter revenue forecast that exceeded market projections, but the stock was flat after hours following an initial bounce.
  • Markets showed a relief rally in Asia while U.S. and European futures were lower, reflecting mixed sentiment on the AI trade and investors' caution about returns and disruption.
  • Geopolitical tensions around U.S.-Iran relations and shifts in Bank of Japan governance and commentary had notable effects on oil prices and the yen, respectively.

Investors greeted Nvidia's latest quarterly results with a muted response, underscoring how lofty expectations have recalibrated market reactions to the semiconductor giant. The company disclosed January-quarter sales that exceeded analysts' estimates and provided a revenue forecast for the current quarter that was above market projections. Yet after an initial after-hours uptick, the stock finished essentially flat as investors appeared to have been seeking an even larger surprise.

The reaction reflects the high bar Nvidia has set: the chipmaker had posted consecutive quarters of notable revenue beats for 14 periods running. Against that backdrop, the most recent outcome, while clearly positive, did not generate the kind of market-moving shock some had hoped for. Still, the results did enough to push immediate worries about AI-driven disruption and the costs associated with wide-scale adoption to the background for the moment.

Markets across Asia responded positively on Thursday, staging a relief rally following the results, even as U.S. and European futures traded lower. The AI trade has prompted alternating waves of enthusiasm and caution among investors in recent weeks. Many remain anxious about returns on AI-related capital allocation and the potential for AI to displace established business models, yet few want to miss any upside. Analysts noted that the AI boom is unlikely to act as a universal catalyst for all stocks in the way some earlier narratives suggested.

Geopolitical developments continued to weigh on market sentiment. U.S. and Iranian negotiators were scheduled to meet in Geneva later on Thursday for their third round of talks this year concerning Iran's nuclear activities. At the same time, the United States has amassed one of its largest military deployments in the Middle East amid preparations for possible strikes against the Islamic Republic.

U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a rationale for potential action against Iran in his State of the Union address earlier this week, framing diplomacy as his preference while saying he would not permit Tehran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Iran has maintained that its nuclear activities are intended for civilian energy production. That U.S. rhetoric contributed to elevated oil prices on Thursday as investors fretted about the risk of supply disruption if conflict were to erupt.

Currency markets also saw renewed focus, particularly on the yen. The Japanese currency hovered near a two-week low after the government named two academics to the Bank of Japan's board who are viewed by markets as strong proponents of economic stimulus. Market participants were surprised by the nominations, which many interpreted as signaling Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's preference for easier monetary policy and that called into question the prospects for further BOJ rate increases.

The yen found some support later in the session after a report in the Yomiuri newspaper said BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda left open the possibility of a near-term rate hike. Additionally, board member Hajime Takata, described as hawkish, advocated for gradual policy tightening. Those comments helped temper downward pressure on the currency.

Traders were also watching a short list of key developments that could influence markets on Thursday, including the U.S.-Iran talks and the U.S. weekly jobless claims. Those items were expected to inform risk sentiment and economic expectations as markets digested corporate results and geopolitical headlines.


Promotional note included in the source material:

ProPicks AI evaluates Nvidia alongside thousands of other companies each month using more than 100 financial metrics. The tool uses artificial intelligence to surface stock ideas by assessing fundamentals, momentum, and valuation, and the original promotional material highlighted past winners it named, including Super Micro Computer and AppLovin, with specific performance figures cited. The material offered readers the option to check whether Nvidia is currently featured in any ProPicks AI strategies or to explore alternative opportunities in the same sector.

Risks

  • Geopolitical risk - Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and the buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East raise the prospect of supply disruptions that could keep oil prices elevated and affect energy markets.
  • AI investment risk - Elevated expectations for AI returns and concerns about the technology's disruptive costs mean investors may swing between enthusiasm and caution, creating volatility for technology and semiconductor sectors.
  • Monetary policy uncertainty - Nominations to the BOJ board perceived as favoring stimulus, paired with mixed signals from BOJ officials, leave the outlook for future interest rate moves unclear and could continue to pressure the yen and influence global FX markets.

More from Economy

Hong Kong Appeal Court Overturns Jimmy Lai Fraud Conviction, Citing Judicial Error Feb 25, 2026 Court of Appeal in Hong Kong Overturns Jimmy Lai’s Fraud Conviction and Sentencing Feb 25, 2026 Bank of Korea Keeps Policy Rate at 2.50% as Chip-Led Growth Buoys Outlook Feb 25, 2026 Dollar Pulls Back as Nvidia Earnings Bolster Risk Appetite and Tariff Details Remain Unclear Feb 25, 2026 Bank of Korea to Publish Quarterly 'Dot Plot' Showing Board Views on Rates Feb 25, 2026