WELLINGTON - New Zealand's economy expanded modestly in the fourth quarter, with official figures showing quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%, a result that fell short of private and central bank projections and reinforced the monetary authority's recent decision to keep policy settings unchanged for now.
Statistics New Zealand reported that gross domestic product rose 0.2% in the December quarter compared with the prior quarter. That outcome was below the 0.4% increase that market analysts had been expecting and beneath the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast of a 0.5% rise. On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.3% - short of the market expectation of a 1.7% gain and following a downward revision to a 1.1% annual increase in the third quarter.
The figures point to an economy that is showing tentative signs of improvement after an extended period of weak activity, but still contains considerable spare capacity. The central bank has been accommodating: since August 2024 it has trimmed the official cash rate by a cumulative 325 basis points. In February the Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 2.25%, citing that the recovery remained in its early stages and that growth was broadening across sectors.
This set of GDP data bolsters the Reserve Bank's pause in policy - particularly given that the numbers predate the beginning of the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices.
Sector details
Statistics New Zealand highlighted the contribution of services to the quarterly increase. "Rental, hiring, and real estate services was the largest contributor to the overall increase in GDP, up 0.8% in the quarter," the agency said. In contrast, construction was the main detractor, falling 1.4% over the quarter. A related measure, the volume of building work put in place - an input used in the GDP calculation - declined 3.1% in the December quarter.
Implications and context
The data present a mixed picture: demand in parts of the services sector is firming, while activity in construction remains subdued. That divergence helps explain the Reserve Bank's cautious stance and the continued presence of spare capacity across the economy. Because the statistics were released before the geopolitical-led spike in oil prices, policymakers will need to monitor follow-on effects on inflation and activity in coming months.
Further analysis will be required to track whether the early signs of recovery spread more broadly and to assess how external shocks alter the trajectory of growth and price pressures.