New analysis from Morgan Stanley contends that online travel agencies (OTAs) may not be the immediate victims of agentic artificial intelligence that some investors have feared. Instead of bypassing intermediary platforms, the bank reports that a number of early AI-driven travel tools are guiding users back to OTA apps and websites to complete transactions.
The note argues that large AI platforms have so far shown reluctance to become the merchant of record for travel bookings - a role that carries payment exposure, customer support responsibilities, refund handling and a range of regulatory obligations. That hesitance, Morgan Stanley says, leaves OTAs at the center of the purchase flow and preserves their position as the entity that takes the transaction on their balance sheet.
Data and inventory remain core advantages
Maintaining merchant status, the bank reasons, allows OTAs to continue capturing the browsing and purchase data that underpins targeted marketing and commercial optimization. Morgan Stanley also points to OTAs' access to expansive accommodation inventory as a structural edge; such breadth of supply complements the data advantage and makes these platforms valuable partners for downstream distribution.
As an illustrative metric of consumer engagement, the note references Booking.com's direct app traction. Monthly active users on Booking.com's app have increased year-on-year by 8%, 9%, 11% and 12% across the last four quarters, a pattern the bank regards as indicative of strengthening direct-channel activity with a higher-margin profile.
Scale and long-tail supply are difficult to displace
Scale is another pillar of the bank's view. Morgan Stanley notes that Booking Holdings Inc lists more than 4 million properties worldwide - roughly 40 times the inventory of major hotel groups - and that about 90% of the company's revenues are connected to independent hotels, small chains and alternative accommodation. The bank argues that this long-tail inventory is neither easy for AI platforms to recreate nor simple to ignore when assembling bookable options for consumers.
While some market participants have speculated that AI might shift advantages toward hotel brands at the expense of OTAs, Morgan Stanley suggests that the current distribution structure - which it likens to paid search in its resilience - remains largely intact for now, with key data flows and purchase pathways preserved.
Analyst note and investor tools
The Morgan Stanley note forms part of a broader debate over how technology will reshape travel distribution. The bank's position is that, based on observed behavior from early agentic AI tools and platform incentives around risk and compliance, OTAs are more likely to remain central transaction participants than to be displaced outright.
Separately, the article referenced tools that evaluate individual stocks across many financial metrics to help investors assess names such as Booking Holdings. Those tools compare fundamentals, momentum and valuation among thousands of companies and are used by some market participants to identify investment opportunities.
Conclusion
Morgan Stanley's analysis highlights mechanics by which OTAs retain both commercial and informational advantages despite the rise of agentic AI travel assistants: AI agents currently direct consumers back to OTA channels to finalize purchases; major platforms have shown limited appetite for taking on merchant responsibilities; and OTAs' combination of large-scale inventory and continuous data capture makes them difficult to disintermediate quickly.