Overview
Preliminary figures released by the national statistics institute on Friday indicate that Mexico's economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, expanding 0.8% in the October-December period. The print topped the 0.6% median projection from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and reversed the 0.3% contraction recorded in the third quarter.
Quarterly and annual comparisons
On a year-over-year basis, gross domestic product increased 1.6% in Q4 compared with the same quarter in 2024. That result exceeded the 1.3% median estimate from the Bloomberg survey and represented an improvement from the revised 0.2% contraction reported for the previous quarter.
Full-year performance
For the calendar year 2025 as a whole, the Mexican economy grew 0.5%, marking the fourth straight year in which the pace of expansion has slowed. The annual outcome came in above the central bank Banxico's forecast of 0.3% and slightly higher than the 0.4% estimate put forward by analysts.
Sectors
The sectoral breakdown shows agriculture as the primary driver of the quarterly gain, with a 5.3% increase compared with Q4 2024. Industry and manufacturing together recorded growth of 0.4%, while the services sector expanded by 2% in the same year-over-year comparison.
Context and implications
The preliminary release indicates a near-term recovery in activity after a contraction in the prior quarter. The data provide a snapshot of where growth was concentrated in Q4, highlighting a notably strong agricultural performance alongside more modest gains in industry and services. The full-year outcome, while above forecasts, continues a multiyear pattern of slowing annual expansion.
Data note
These figures are preliminary estimates published by the national statistics institute on Friday.