Economy June 4, 2026 10:02 AM

Mexico Says Growth Could Outperform OECD Forecasts as Large Infrastructure Investment Nears

Finance minister points to a 700 billion peso investment package and measures to rein in inflation as potential upside to official growth projections

By Avery Klein

Mexico's finance minister signaled that the country's economy could surpass the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) most recent growth forecast, citing an upcoming public investment programme focused on infrastructure and government steps to control inflation. The OECD projects 0.8% growth for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, while warning of headwinds linked to trade tariffs, slower U.S. growth, higher energy costs and fiscal consolidation.

Mexico Says Growth Could Outperform OECD Forecasts as Large Infrastructure Investment Nears

Key Points

  • Mexico's finance minister said government actions and increased public investment could push growth above the OECD's 0.8% 2026 and 1.8% 2027 projections - impacts expected in infrastructure-related sectors.
  • The government has assembled an investment package exceeding 700 billion pesos ($40.50 billion) focused on roads, ports and electricity generation, which officials say will begin to boost activity this quarter.
  • The OECD identifies trade tariffs, slower U.S. growth and fiscal consolidation limiting public investment as constraints - affecting exporters and investment-sensitive industries.

Mexico's Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said the country's economic performance could top the OECD's latest forecast, pointing to an expanded program of public spending and government measures aimed at curbing inflation.

The OECD's projection calls for Mexico to expand by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The organisation cautioned that the outlook is constrained by a mix of factors - including trade tariffs, softer growth in the United States, broader global uncertainty and fiscal consolidation that may limit public investment.

In an interview published late Wednesday in the newspaper Milenio, Amador said that the weaker estimates in the international forecasts reflected pressures common to a number of countries and were in part a response to higher energy costs stemming from geopolitical conflict.

Amador said the Mexican government has prepared an investment package that tops 700 billion pesos ($40.50 billion) for the coming months. He said the package places emphasis on infrastructure projects - roads, ports and electricity generation - and that these measures would begin to stimulate activity starting this quarter.

The OECD's Latin America outlook noted that Mexico's economy weakened markedly at the start of 2026. Private investment was described as remaining weak, while public spending was being constrained by policies intended to reduce the fiscal deficit.

The organisation also highlighted uncertainty in Mexico's growth trajectory tied to trade with the United States, saying exports beyond industries such as computer equipment were likely to be affected by a combination of tariffs and slower U.S. demand.

Amador pushed back on the stringency of some international predictions, saying such forecasts have at times underestimated Mexico's performance. "It would not be the first time," he said. "Last year they told us we were going to fall into recession and we ended up growing almost 1%."


This account presents the minister's view alongside the OECD's forecasts and assessment, detailing the government's planned public investment priorities and the external risks the OECD identifies. The information is limited to the statements and data provided by the minister and the OECD in the cited interview and outlook.

Risks

  • Trade tariffs and weaker U.S. demand could depress exports outside sectors like computer equipment - a risk for export-oriented manufacturing and trade-exposed firms.
  • Higher energy costs tied to geopolitical conflict and global uncertainty have contributed to weaker international forecasts - a factor that can raise input costs for industry and affect inflation.
  • Fiscal consolidation that restricts public spending could limit the government's ability to sustain investment-led growth - relevant to infrastructure contractors and capital goods suppliers.

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