U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast to accelerate modestly in May, with Cox Automotive estimating a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million units. That projected pace would exceed April's 15.9 million SAAR and reverse the year-ago monthly rate of 15.6 million.
On a unit basis, Cox Automotive expects sales volume to total 1.48 million vehicles for the month. That figure is effectively flat compared with May 2025 but represents a 7% increase relative to the prior month. The calendar for May includes 26 selling days, the same number as in April and one fewer than in the comparable month last year.
The company highlights a degree of resilience in the auto market even as broad economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions persist. Higher fuel prices and soft consumer sentiment are noted headwinds, yet several offsets are supporting demand. These include concentrated purchasing power among new-vehicle buyers, a rebound in the stock market to record levels, and larger tax refunds and tax benefits this year.
"May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty," said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive. "New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs."
The anticipated mix of vehicle types shows continued strength in sport-utility vehicles. Cox Automotive expects mid-size SUVs and crossovers to reach 255,000 units in May, a 6.1% increase from the same month last year. Compact SUVs and crossovers are also forecast at 255,000 units, up 3.5% year-over-year. By contrast, full-size pickup truck sales are projected to fall to 205,000 units, down 4.9% from May 2025.
These segment-level forecasts underscore the ongoing consumer preference for SUVs and crossovers while indicating some cooling in the full-size pickup category. Cox Automotive, which describes itself as the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider, attributes the overall steadiness in new-vehicle demand to the concentration of wealth among buyers and the offsetting effects of stronger equity markets and tax season-related cash flows.
While the forecast points to a modest upward move in the headline SAAR, the interaction of higher fuel costs, weak consumer sentiment, and one fewer selling day compared with last year are variables that could influence final results once official sales tallies are reported.
Key data in the May outlook:
- SAAR forecast: 16.1 million units (May)
- April SAAR: 15.9 million units
- May 2025 SAAR: 15.6 million units
- Projected unit volume: 1.48 million vehicles
- Selling days in May: 26 (one fewer than last year)