Summary and outlook
Markets will reopen to a concentrated set of risks this week as policy moves and corporate results collide with geopolitical tension. The chief uncertainty is the future of broad U.S. tariffs after the president announced temporary global levies following a Supreme Court decision that struck down his emergency tariffs. At the same time, earnings from Nvidia and Dell will be closely parsed for signs about the health of AI-driven infrastructure spending. Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, including planned nuclear talks in Geneva, adds another dimension to market risk, particularly for oil.
Key points
- U.S. tariff policy is in flux after the president announced temporary 15% global levies, creating uncertainty for trade-exposed sectors and international agreements.
- Nvidia's quarterly results, due after the U.S. close on Wednesday, are viewed as a barometer for the AI trade and could influence global equity sentiment.
- Dell will report after the close on Thursday, with the focus on server demand, rising component costs and competitive pressures in the data-center market.
Risks and uncertainties
- Trade policy ambiguity - The evolving tariff stance affects exporters, importers and supply-chain reliant sectors across the economy.
- Corporate earnings volatility - Tech and semiconductor stocks face heightened sensitivity to Nvidia and Dell results, which could prompt broader market moves.
- Geopolitical escalation - Developments in U.S.-Iran relations and the potential for military action could increase volatility in oil and risk assets.
What to watch, in detail
1. The unraveling and potential rebirth of broad tariffs
Tariffs have surged back to the top of the market agenda after the president moved to impose a temporary, 15% global tariff schedule under a 1974 trade statute. The action followed a Supreme Court decision that invalidated his earlier emergency levies. Initial White House messaging had indicated a 10% tariff effective Tuesday, but the president adjusted the rate upward over the weekend to 15%.
That sequence leaves a complex legal and political picture. Congress has constitutionally-mandated trade powers that were central to the court's opinion, and lawmakers could opt to extend the duties once any temporary measures expire. Yet analysts at ING highlighted an alternative path - the president himself could allow the surcharge to lapse, declare a new emergency, and initiate another 150-day window, effectively creating what ING described as a "de facto perpetual tariff instrument." That view underscores how the executive branch might attempt to sustain tariff authority in the absence of clear congressional action.
2. U.S. Customs notification and lingering practical questions
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency told shippers it would stop collecting the emergency tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down at 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday. The agency did not, however, explain why it had been collecting those levies at ports of entry in the days after the court's ruling, nor did it indicate whether importers who already paid the duties would receive refunds.
CBP made clear that this halt applies only to the tariffs invalidated by the court and does not change other tariffs the president has set under separate statutes - including measures grounded in national security or designed to counter unfair trade practices.
International trading partners are seeking clarity as well. The European Commission has asked the U.S. to provide "full clarity" on how American tariff policy will change following the judicial decision. China said it was conducting a "full assessment" of the ruling and urged the U.S. to refrain from "unilateral tariff measures" against trading partners. Those diplomatic responses reflect the ripple effects that shifts in U.S. trade policy can have on global commerce and bilateral agreements.
3. Nvidia's report as a global AI gauge
Nvidia will report quarterly results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, and its numbers are being treated as a proxy for the broader AI-related investment cycle. The company has come to represent the hardware side of the AI boom, and investors are watching closely for revenue and guidance that could confirm or call into question further infrastructure spending.
Since the advent of ChatGPT in 2022, enthusiasm for AI has driven outsized gains for a group of mega-cap technology stocks sometimes referred to as the "Magnificent Seven." That cohort helped propel overall market returns in recent years as enterprises and cloud providers dramatically increased investment in compute and storage to support large AI models.
But recent weakness among software names and concerns about potential disruption from new AI models have cooled parts of that narrative. Some investors are asking when the heavy expenditures required to deploy and scale AI will translate into substantial profits. Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets, framed the week's importance plainly, saying the period could be "the most important of the U.S. earnings season" because Nvidia's results may leave the entire global equity market on edge given the prominence of the AI trade.
4. Dell's quarter and the economics of server builds
Dell will release its quarterly report after the bell on Thursday. Demand for the company’s servers has been buoyed by the surge in data-center spending tied to AI, and that strength prompted Dell to lift its annual revenue and profit targets in November.
The company has landed high-profile engagements, including work with the U.S. Department of Energy, and it counts customers such as CoreWeave and Elon Musk's xAI among those buying its systems. Yet the rapid build-out of AI infrastructure has come with cost pressures. Memory chip prices in particular have risen sharply, increasing expenses for server producers. Dell is also facing intensifying competition from peers like Super Micro Computer, a dynamic that could affect margins and market share.
Investors will be watching how Dell balances stronger demand for AI-capable servers against rising component costs and competitive forces when it reports results.
5. A consequential week for U.S.-Iran relations
The situation with Iran could be decisive for markets in the near term. Analysts at Vital Knowledge suggested that the president's deadline implies a choice may be made about potential strikes against Iran by around March 1. Adding to the tension, Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, according to Oman's foreign minister.
Reports of an increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East have heightened concerns about the prospect of renewed violence in the region. The president has urged Iran to quickly reach an agreement on its nuclear program, warning that "really bad things will happen" if it does not.
Iran is a significant producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and holds some of the world’s largest proven crude reserves. Those facts make developments in U.S.-Iran relations especially relevant for energy markets. Oil prices were lower on Monday, but any escalation could quickly alter supply perceptions and pricing dynamics.
How investors might frame the week
For market participants, this week centers on disentangling policy intent from legal constraints and reading corporate earnings for evidence of durable demand. Trade policy decisions - whether driven by Congress or the executive branch - could have wide-ranging effects on trade-exposed industries and multinational supply chains. At the same time, Nvidia's results will be scrutinized not only for the company's own outlook but for signals about where spending on AI infrastructure is heading. Dell's report will offer a more focused look at the economics of supplying that infrastructure, including margin pressure from rising memory costs and competitive tension in servers.
Geopolitical developments with Iran add an overlay of uncertainty that can affect energy markets and risk sentiment across asset classes. Taken together, the set of events this week ties policy, corporate fundamentals and geopolitics into a concentrated test for markets.
Bottom line
Expect elevated volatility as traders and investors absorb shifting tariff declarations, digest results from AI-linked hardware suppliers, and monitor diplomatic activity around Iran. The convergence of these forces makes the coming week a pivotal one for risk assets and sectors tied to trade, semiconductors, data centers and energy.