Economy February 11, 2026

Markets Poised Ahead of U.S. Jobs Print; Ford Takes $900 Million Hit as Tariff Relief Is Delayed

Futures edge higher as investors weigh employment data, Ford's charge and takeover drama at Warner Bros.; gold and oil react to softer retail sales

By Marcus Reed
Markets Poised Ahead of U.S. Jobs Print; Ford Takes $900 Million Hit as Tariff Relief Is Delayed

U.S. equity futures ticked up as traders awaited a delayed U.S. jobs report that could shape Federal Reserve policy prospects. Ford disclosed a $900 million charge tied to an unexpected postponement of tariff relief, even as its forward guidance beat estimates. Activist investor moves in the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover contest and mixed commodity moves added to market focus ahead of fresh economic data and an earnings slate.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures climbed modestly ahead of a delayed jobs report projected to show 66,000 payroll additions in January, up from 50,000 in December - this data could influence Fed rate-path expectations and FX market positioning.
  • Ford reported a fourth-quarter operating loss of $11.1 billion and recorded a $900 million charge tied to an unexpected delay in the effective date of a Trump administration tariff-relief program, while offering guidance that beat analyst estimates.
  • Activist investor activity at Warner Bros. Discovery and competing bids from Paramount Skydance and Netflix are adding corporate takeover uncertainty, while gold and oil prices moved in reaction to softer U.S. retail sales and geopolitical tensions.

U.S. stock-index futures inched higher on Wednesday as market participants positioned for a delayed employment report that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy later in the year. At 02:33 ET (07:33 GMT), futures tied to the major benchmarks were modestly higher - the Dow futures contract was up 91 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had gained 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 48 points, or 0.2%.

Trading followed a split performance across major cash indexes a day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a new record close on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both slipped. Market participants cited renewed concerns about the potential impact of emerging artificial intelligence applications on sectors beyond technology as a contributing factor to recent weakness.

Financials were among the more visibly affected groups after the rollout of an AI-enabled tax planning product by startup Altruis. Brokerage and wealth management names took a hit, with Charles Schwab falling by more than 7% and Raymond James recording its biggest single-day decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The fallout followed earlier AI-driven selloffs in insurance brokers and software providers, underscoring market worries about how broadly AI could disrupt established business models - although some analysts have described those concerns as overstated.

Investor sentiment was also tempered by a slowdown in retail sales, a factor that has prompted some observers to suggest a possible deceleration in economic growth during 2026. Those developments contributed to rising bets that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more dovish stance later in the year; the CME FedWatch Tool showed an uptick in the probability that markets will price in an April interest rate reduction.


Jobs report in focus

The primary macro event on the calendar is a delayed reading of U.S. employment growth, due to be released on Wednesday. Consensus projections call for the economy to have added about 66,000 jobs in January, up from 50,000 in December.

At its most recent policy meeting, the Fed described the labor market as "stabilizing" following a period of relative softness. That view, together with ongoing evidence of inflation that remains steady but elevated, was sufficient for policymakers to hold the target federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

At the same time, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned earlier this week that advances in AI could reduce U.S. job gains in coming months even as productivity increases. The interaction between job growth and inflation - the two pillars of Fed policy deliberations - means the upcoming payrolls figure, together with a consumer price index due on Friday, will be closely watched for indications about the interest-rate path in 2026.

"Today’s jobs report is a pivotal event for the FX market. A materially weak print would likely pave the way for markets to price in a cut in April," ING analysts said in a note, underscoring how a softer reading could shift expectations about the timing of policy easing.


Ford records charge linked to tariff-relief delay

Ford Motor Co. disclosed mixed results that left investors parsing headline metrics. Shares ticked higher in extended trading after the automaker issued profit and cash-flow guidance that topped analysts' forecasts. Management told the market to expect annual operating income near $9 billion, versus Wall Street's estimate of roughly $8.85 billion. Expected free cash flow of $5.5 billion also exceeded projections.

Despite the forward-looking guidance, Ford reported a fourth-quarter operating loss of $11.1 billion - the largest on record for the company. The loss reflected, among other items, a charge of $900 million related to a delay in the effective date of a tariff-relief program enacted during the Trump administration. CFO Sherry House said Ford was informed of the "unexpected" change "very late" in 2025.

The tariff-related charge and the sizeable quarterly operating loss introduce added visibility risk to the automotive sector's near-term cash flow and profitability profiles. The automaker's updated outlook, however, helped limit downside in extended-hours trading.

Earnings season will continue to deliver fresh corporate data later in the day, with reports scheduled from Cisco Systems, McDonald’s, and T-Mobile US among others.


Activist investor enters Warner Bros. drama

Investor attention also centered on developments in the takeover battle involving Warner Bros. Discovery. The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Ancora Holdings has amassed about a $200 million stake in Warner and is preparing to press management to reject Netflix's bid for the company's movie and television divisions and its HBO Max streaming service.

According to people familiar with the matter, Ancora could make its position public as soon as Wednesday and is expected to argue that Warner has not sufficiently engaged with a rival offer from Paramount Skydance. That competing proposal, led by David Ellison, would seek to acquire all of Warner rather than carve out specific assets.

Paramount has sweetened its proposal by offering Warner shareholders additional cash for every quarter the transaction remains unconsummated. The company also said it would cover any breakup fee Warner might incur if it walks away from the Netflix deal. Despite these concessions, Paramount did not increase the overall value of its proposal, which including debt totals $108.4 billion.


Commodities react to softer retail sales and trade tensions

Precious metals posted modest gains after U.S. retail sales came in softer than expected, a reading that reinforced speculation the economy may be cooling and that the Fed could pivot to easing. Spot gold was last up 0.4% to $5,047.08 an ounce, while gold futures rose 0.8% to $5,071.34.oz. Even with that uptick, spot prices remained below recent record highs. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East also left safe-haven demand for bullion under pressure.

In energy markets, Brent crude futures advanced 1.2% to $69.64 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 1.3% to $64.81 a barrel, reflecting a modest rebound in oil prices during the session.


What to watch

  • Wednesday's delayed U.S. payrolls print - the projected 66,000 gain for January, and how it compares with December's 50,000.
  • The consumer price index due on Friday, which together with jobs data will shape market expectations about the Fed's 2026 rate path.
  • Ford's follow-up commentary on the tariff-relief delay and any incremental detail about cash flow and operating income drivers.
  • Further developments in the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover contest, including any public statements from Ancora, Warner management, Paramount Skydance, or Netflix.
  • Corporate earnings from Cisco, McDonald’s, and T-Mobile US, which could influence index performance and sector rotation.

For market participants focused on transportation and logistics, the Ford disclosure is particularly noteworthy. A $900 million charge tied to tariff relief timing affects near-term cash flow and could influence OEM sourcing and inventory strategies, with potential knock-on effects for freight volumes and the cost profile of supply chains. At the same time, softer retail sales and a cooling labor market would likely weigh on demand for freight across modes and could create downward pressure on spot rates and utilization metrics.

Investors are therefore monitoring the jobs number not only for its policy implications, but also for signals about demand trends that directly affect freight volumes, operating ratios and the broader cycle for transportation and logistics providers.


Bottom line

Markets entered the midweek session in a cautiously optimistic posture ahead of pivotal economic data. A modest rise in futures reflected hopes for clearer direction from the labor market report and a busy corporate calendar, while a notable tariff-relief delay at Ford and unfolding drama in the Warner Bros. takeover battle provided company-specific catalysts. Commodities reacted to softer retail sales and geopolitical uncertainty, setting the stage for a data-heavy close to the week.

Risks

  • A materially weak jobs print could prompt markets to accelerate pricing in a Fed rate cut, impacting FX, interest-rate sensitive sectors and fixed-income markets - this would also signal softer demand for transportation and logistics services.
  • Ford's $900 million tariff-related charge and its record quarterly operating loss pose near-term profitability and cash-flow risks for the automaker, with potential implications for vehicle production, supply chains and freight volumes.
  • Ongoing takeover uncertainty at Warner Bros. Discovery, including activist pressure and competing bids, could create volatility for media and entertainment stocks and complicate investor assessment of deal outcomes and associated break fees.

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