Global markets have revised their timeline for the Iran conflict, now pricing in a longer period of disruption than they did just one day earlier, Vincent Mortier, Chief Investment Officer at Amundi SA, said on Thursday.
"Markets changed their outlook in the last 24 hours from expecting 'a resolution within weeks to a resolution within months,'" Mortier said on Bloomberg TV. He added that investing under the current conditions is "not easy," comments he made on the sidelines of a Bank of America conference in Paris.
Those shifting expectations came as oil and natural gas prices surged on Thursday amid escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf that raised the prospect of long-term harm to major energy facilities.
European gas futures moved sharply higher, climbing as much as 35% and rising to levels that are more than double their pre-war prices. In crude markets, Brent traded up to $117 a barrel.
The juxtaposition of a rapid change in investor time horizons and sizable commodity price moves underscores how quickly market risk assessments can evolve when geopolitical tensions affect critical supply regions.
Market backdrop and investor sentiment
Mortier's observations highlight a re-pricing by investors: what had been viewed as a conflict likely to be resolved in a matter of weeks is now being treated as one that could persist for months. That reassessment coincided with the immediate market reaction, particularly in energy markets.
Price action in energy markets
On Thursday, natural gas and oil saw notable gains. European gas futures were the most dramatic, rising as much as 35% and surpassing twice the level seen before the conflict. Brent crude reached highs of $117 a barrel during the same session.
Those moves reflect concerns about potential sustained disruptions to energy infrastructure rather than only short-term interruptions, a factor that changes how investors and market participants approach risk and allocation.
Note: This article reports statements made by Vincent Mortier and market price moves as described. It does not add additional facts or context beyond those reported during the comments and market session referenced above.