Markets swung between hope and renewed concern on Tuesday as competing messages from Washington and Tehran reshaped investor sentiment. President Donald Trump’s assertion that the war with Iran was "very complete" and might be "over soon" initially supported a broad relief rally in risk assets. That optimism, however, proved fragile after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said, "We are the ones who will determine the end of the war," and Iranian hardliners backed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei while reiterating plans to continue an oil blockade.
The rapid back-and-forth in rhetoric produced sharp moves in energy and equity markets. Brent crude futures tumbled as much as 11% to a low of $88.05 per barrel before cutting the drop to 4.8% by later trading. Stock markets showed divergent reactions: retail-driven risk appetite supported gains across parts of Asia, yet U.S. futures were subdued.
In Asia, gains were pronounced. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.1%, and South Korea’s Kospi advanced as much as 6.6%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 2.2%, narrowing losses accumulated since the conflict began. European opening indications were also positive: pan-region futures were up 1.0%, German DAX futures gained 1.0%, and FTSE futures edged higher by 0.4%.
By contrast, U.S. equity futures softened after an earlier rebound, with S&P 500 e-mini futures EScv1 down 0.5%, reflecting a more cautious tone among investors watching geopolitical headlines.
Economic and trade news added another layer to the market picture. Chinese export growth accelerated in January-February, keeping the world’s second-largest economy on pace to surpass a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus over the course of 2026. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s trade ministry, almost five years to the day since broad pandemic-related shutdowns, asked companies to encourage employees to work from home again - this time as a measure to conserve fuel amid supply disruptions and price rises linked to the Iran war.
Traders will also monitor corporate and sovereign schedules for cues. Key company earnings due include Oracle, Volkswagen, Persimmon and Kohl’s. On the macro calendar, Germany will report its trade balance for January, and the country is set to auction 2-year government debt.
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For markets, the day underscored how rapidly narratives can shift when high-level statements intersect with firm rebuttals from opposing parties. Oil markets, Asian equities and European futures all responded in quick succession to diplomatic signals and trade data, while U.S. futures remained cautious. Traders and corporate planners will be watching both further commentary from the parties involved and scheduled economic releases as they reassess risk and position portfolios.