The start of the Lunar New Year, marked this cycle as the year of the fire horse - a symbolic pairing of dynamism and unpredictability - coincides with a week of data and corporate reports that could set the tone for markets across regions.
Retail and consumer signals will be in focus when Walmart, fresh from reaching a $1 trillion market valuation, reports quarterly results on Thursday. The U.S. retail giant’s figures are expected to provide a reading on household spending trends after recent U.S. data painted a mixed picture. December retail sales were unexpectedly flat, a development that could point to weaker consumer momentum as 2026 begins. That concern was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected January employment report, which eased some worries about an imminent economic slowdown.
Walmart’s release will precede earnings from other major retailers in the weeks ahead, including Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target, and arrives ahead of a cluster of macro releases. Market participants will also get the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, a monthly consumer sentiment survey, and the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - all of which could shape views on growth and policy.
On the commodity front, Europe’s four largest mining companies - Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta - are due to report results during a period when several metals have recently hit record prices. Copper, gold and silver reached new peaks in late January, though the strong January rally has shown signs of unevenness into February.
The demand story underpinning some of these gains is clear in broad terms. Expanding data centre capacity creates steady needs for copper, and upgrades to grid infrastructure to support the artificial intelligence build-out similarly require significant amounts of the metal. At the same time, U.S. political uncertainty and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence have contributed to bullion strength, lifting gold and, to some extent, silver.
Investors have already priced some of this optimism into equity markets: the combined market value of the four miners has climbed by more than $65 billion since the start of the year, even as a proposed merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto was abandoned. This week’s earnings reports from those companies will be watched closely to see whether recent gains can be sustained.
Early-month purchasing managers’ surveys - the flash PMIs for January - offered some respite from a spate of uncertainties that weighed on firms over the past year, including tariff concerns that affected Europe and key manufacturing hubs across Asia. Those surveys indicated a pickup in activity across most major economies. Services sectors showed gathering momentum as price pressures subsided, while manufacturing remained more of a drag.
Beyond headline PMI readings, sub-indexes such as new orders, employment and pricing provide a forward-looking sense of how firms are positioning themselves for the months ahead. With artificial intelligence deployments raising questions about longer-term job security and profit margins for some companies, investors are likely to examine February’s flash PMI releases closely for early signals of how firms are adjusting.
Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom’s labour market and inflation prints are expected to add volatility to markets that are already sensitive to recent political instability at the heart of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government. Labour market figures, due Tuesday, will indicate whether the gradual cooling in wage growth that the Bank of England monitors has continued.
January inflation data, due on Wednesday, follows a December reading of 3.4 percent - a level down from a peak above 11 percent in 2022 but still the highest inflation rate in the Group of Seven. While lower energy prices scheduled to take effect in April should help nudge inflation toward the Bank of England’s 2 percent objective, much of the recent slowdown reflects one-off factors rather than sustained disinflationary momentum.
Political turbulence has created a sensitive backdrop for sterling and gilts, and markets will respond to any meaningful shifts in labour or price data during the week. Credit rating agency Fitch is also scheduled to review the UK’s sovereign rating on Friday, adding another potential source of market focus.
In Asia, Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday is under intense scrutiny following recent market turmoil. Last month, MSCI threatened to downgrade Indonesia to frontier market status, a move that precipitated an $80 billion market selloff - the nation’s largest rout since the Asian financial crisis of 1998. The shock triggered subsequent reactions from rating and index providers: Moody’s lowered Indonesia’s credit outlook, and FTSE postponed a planned index review.
Investors will watch whether Bank Indonesia opts to resume easing after a cumulative 150 basis points of rate reductions between September 2024 and September 2025. Any change in direction could influence capital flows and market sentiment for the region.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its first policy decision under Governor Anna Breman on Wednesday. Breman, who joined from Sweden’s Riksbank in December, is widely expected to keep the policy rate on hold at this meeting. However, New Zealand’s economy has rebounded quickly enough that market participants anticipate the next move could be a hike, with some viewing a rate increase as possible as early as September.
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Between corporate earnings, PMI snapshots, labour and inflation data, and central bank decisions in Indonesia and New Zealand, the coming week presents a concentrated set of potential catalysts across equity, commodity and currency markets. With much of Asia observing Lunar New Year holidays, trading volumes may be lighter in parts of the region even as headline events stack up elsewhere.