U.S. equity futures were modestly higher on Monday as traders weighed the likely duration of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign in Iran, which has now moved into a third week. By 04:19 ET (08:19 GMT), contracts tied to the Dow had gained 141 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were up 33 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed 131 points, or 0.5%.
Last week saw the main Wall Street averages retreat after a sharp increase in crude oil prices stoked concerns about global energy supply. Tehran's actions have effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz - the chokepoint south of Iran through which roughly a fifth of the world's tanker traffic moves - constricting energy flows and raising the prospect of broader economic repercussions.
Even as Washington has taken steps intended to calm supply worries, including easing certain sanctions on Russian oil, the price of crude has continued to trend upward. Rising costs at the pump have followed, with gasoline prices explicitly noted as a component of overall inflation readings and a focal point for American voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November. Analysts at ING, in a weekend note, highlighted U.S. strikes on Kharg Island as an added supply risk given that the island is a principal transit point for Iranian exports, though they observed that most energy infrastructure there appears to have been left largely intact.
Political pressure to reopen the strait
On the diplomatic front, U.S. President Donald Trump pressed seven nations to help maintain security through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the waterway's significance to global oil shipments. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday, the president did not indicate whether any of the countries he approached had accepted the request for assistance.
Mr. Trump additionally urged members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to take part in efforts to reopen the strait, warning that refusal or inaction could have negative implications for the future of NATO. He singled out China, suggesting he might cancel a planned summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in April if Beijing did not act to help restore passage through the strait. Media reports noted that some tankers bound for China have been permitted to transit the waterway while others have reportedly been struck by projectiles.
Oil market volatility and supply measures
Oil traded in a volatile pattern on Monday as markets remained alert to the prospect of further disruptions originating in the Middle East. Prices had briefly eased following the president's call for other nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the broader tone stayed cautious amid conflicting statements from U.S. officials, who suggested the Iran war would be short-lived, and Tehran, which characterized itself as resilient and prepared to defend its interests.
Over the weekend the International Energy Agency said it would begin releasing 411.9 million barrels from emergency stockpiles to blunt possible supply shocks. In early U.S. trading, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 2.7% to $105.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.0% to $98.75 per barrel by 04:06 ET. Oil had earlier climbed as much as 3% before trimming some of those gains.
Nvidia's developer conference draws investor attention
Also on the calendar this week is Nvidia's annual developer conference, where CEO Jensen Huang will present the company's latest technology and product plans. Investors are watching closely for announcements that could indicate how Nvidia intends to defend its position in the rapidly expanding market for artificial intelligence semiconductors.
Nvidia faces a growing field of competitors. Traditional chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel are contending alongside large technology companies that have begun designing processors tuned for AI workloads. The rise of inference-based AI workloads - where models execute tasks on behalf of users - presents particular challenges because these applications often run on chips that differ from those Nvidia has historically produced. Customers including OpenAI and Meta Platforms have publicly indicated they could develop their own AI processors.
In December, Nvidia paid $17 billion to acquire Groq, a company focused on efficient inference processing. Company leadership has signaled plans to show how Groq's technology can be integrated with Nvidia's CUDA software platform. Analysts at Vital Knowledge identified the likely major announcement at the conference as a new inference-focused chip that incorporates intellectual property obtained through the Groq acquihire.
Federal Reserve decision and macro trade-offs
Beyond the technology sector, central-bank policy will dominate market attention. A sequence of rate decisions by global central banks is scheduled this week, headlined by the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that concludes on Wednesday. The Fed is broadly expected to hold borrowing costs steady at the meeting's end.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is slated to step down in May, will hold one of his final post-decision press conferences to discuss the current state of U.S. inflation and labor markets. Recent employment figures have come in much weaker than anticipated, underscoring vulnerability in the jobs backdrop. At the same time, the Iran conflict has the potential to aggravate inflation through higher energy prices.
These competing forces set up a classic policy dilemma for the Fed. Easing monetary policy could support hiring but risks adding to inflationary pressures; further tightening could help lower price growth but may weaken the labor market. Investors will be looking for guidance on how the Fed plans to balance these opposing objectives in the months ahead.
Market implications and positioning
The combination of sustained geopolitical conflict, elevated oil prices, Nvidia's product roadmap and the Fed's near-term policy stance compresses multiple market-moving factors into a single week. Energy markets and inflation readings are likely to be watched for signs that higher crude costs translate into broader price pressures. Technology investors will be parsing any Nvidia announcements for evidence of how the company will address increased competition in inference workloads. Fixed income and currency markets will be sensitive to the Fed's commentary on rates and labor-market resilience.
Note on investment research tools
Some market participants use algorithmic screening tools to evaluate equities. One such tool, ProPicks AI, reportedly evaluates Nvidia alongside thousands of other companies using more than 100 financial metrics. The service states it applies machine learning to identify names that combine fundamentals, momentum and valuation, and cites past examples of winners it has highlighted, including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).
Where markets go from here
In the immediate term, traders will monitor developments on multiple fronts: the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz and any further strikes that might affect transit routes; additional swings in oil prices and any government or agency releases that aim to stabilize supplies; product disclosures at Nvidia's developer event; and the Federal Reserve's formal guidance on interest rates and its assessment of inflation and employment.
Taken together, these elements create a week in which both policy and industry-specific announcements could shift investor expectations, with implications for energy, technology and macro-sensitive assets.