An internal Kremlin memo produced earlier this year contemplates a return by Russia to the dollar settlement system as a component of a potential economic partnership with a future Trump administration. The paper, circulated among senior Russian officials, presents seven areas where economic interests of the two countries could be coordinated if a deal were reached to end the Ukraine war.
The document frames cooperation around traditional energy sources rather than a pivot to green alternatives, proposing joint investments in natural gas, offshore oil projects and critical raw materials. It also states that these lines of collaboration would yield advantages for U.S. companies under the terms envisioned in the memo.
Officials who reviewed the paper said it offers a window into Kremlin thinking as economic arrangements become a focal point of discussions tied to any prospective peace accord. At the core of the proposal is the prospect that Russia would re-enter the dollar settlement system - a move the memo positions as a major policy reversal compared with current Kremlin practice. The paper notes that such a shift could have far-reaching consequences for global finance.
While the memo sets out broad areas of economic alignment, it situates energy cooperation - including fossil fuels, natural gas and offshore oil - and access to critical raw materials as central pillars of proposed engagement. The document signals that the Kremlin is weighing how economic incentives might be structured to attract U.S. participation and corporate investment.
The paper circulated among senior officials and is being considered in the context of wider discussions about linking economic agreements to any future resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. The memorandum's proposal that Russia might rejoin dollar clearing arrangements is presented as a significant policy shift that, if enacted, would alter the mechanics of cross-border transactions involving Moscow and could reshape aspects of international financial flows.
Key points
- Russia is weighing a return to dollar settlement as part of a potential economic pact tied to ending the Ukraine war.
- An internal Kremlin memo outlines seven areas of U.S.-Russia economic alignment, prioritizing fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil and critical raw materials, with potential gains for U.S. companies.
- The suggested return to dollar clearing would represent a significant reversal of current Kremlin policy and could have broad implications for global finance.
Risks and uncertainties
- It remains uncertain whether a deal to end the Ukraine war will materialize and whether economic elements described in the memo would be implemented - affecting energy and finance sectors.
- The memo reflects internal Kremlin thinking but does not guarantee policy adoption, creating uncertainty for markets and companies considering engagement in energy and critical materials.
- The scale and timing of any return to dollar settlement are unspecified in the paper, leaving open the degree and pace of potential impacts on global financial flows.